848
FXUS66 KMFR 120655
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1055 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...12/06Z TAFS
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/LIFR IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, IMPACTING ROSEBURG, MEDFORD. HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT THOUGH AND
EXPECT FOG TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES,
INCLUDING AT KLAMATH FALLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, ACROSS INLAND AREAS EXPECT VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND VALLEY FOG
WILL LIFT AROUND 16-19Z. ALONG THE COAST EXPECT A MIX OF GENERALLY
IFR/MFR WITH LOCAL LIFR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEN, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR AROUND 17-21Z WITH SOME
LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AS A STRONG FRONT NEARS THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY, EXPECT
WINDS ALOFT TO INCREASE WITH WIND SHEAR AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG
THE COAST, INCLUDING NORTH BEND.
MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2025
A STRONG
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALES MAY PERSIST ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS MODEL ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT A SIGNIFICANT CONTINGENT OF THE MODEL SUITE
INDICATES A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH AND STEEP WEST
SWELL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL THREAT
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS SHOWERS APPROACH THE SHORE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOLLOWS THE GALES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST SWELL AND FRESH SOUTHWEST SWELL
DOMINATED SEAS. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 220 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025/
DISCUSSION...A WIDE SWATH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED IN OVERHEAD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT NUDGES CLOSER IN OVER THE
REGION. THROUGH THE SCATTERED GAPS HERE AND THERE IN THE CLOUD
SHIELD, SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
PERSISTS IN MANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. WITH THE CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AND THE WARM FRONT ONLY MAKING THE INVERSIONS STRONGER,
MANY OF THESE VALLEYS MAY NEVER CLEAR OUT TODAY BEFORE MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FORM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AS CLOUDS
TEND TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT, AS LONG AS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN OVERHEAD, THE LESS LIKELY IT IS THAT DENSE FOG WILL FORM.
THAT BEING SAID, ANY AREAS THAT DO CLEAR HAVE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF DENSE FOG FORMATION.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP OFFSHORE TROUGH
SWINGS TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT (MFR-RDD) AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INITIALLY OF
(~50-60 KT) DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO IN THE USUAL
SPOTS -- THE SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER THE EAST SIDE. IT DOESN'T
APPEAR IT WILL COME TOGETHER SOON ENOUGH TO MEET HIGH WIND
CRITERIA ALONG THE COAST, BUT GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY FARTHER INLAND,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER THE EAST SIDE, BUT ALSO
PERHAPS HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASING TO AND PEAKING AT 60-70 KT WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
ALONG THE CASCADES AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH BASIN, BUT
HAVE WEAKENED ELSEWHERE. AS A RESULT, THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
SHASTA VALLEY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A LOW END HIGH WIND WARNING,
THE MAJORITY OF THE EAST SIDE WAS UPGRADED TO ONLY A WIND
ADVISORY, INCLUDING AT KLAMATH FALLS, AND A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR ROGUE VALLEY FROM ASHLAND TO MEDFORD. DETAILS ON THESE
WIND HEADLINES CAN BE FOUND AT PDXNPWMFR.
ONCE AGAIN, SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE VERY HIGH (~8000 FT),
SO PRECIPITATION, EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, WILL BEGIN AS RAIN. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE SNOW LEVELS DROP SOME, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY. SO, DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN AS LOW AS 4000-4500 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 5000 FEET, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
DECREASED OVERALL PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, LIKELY AS A RESULT
OF DOWNSLOPING AND BLOCKING DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY
OF THE MOISTURE FLOW. NOW MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MORE LIKE
1-3" WITH LOCALLY 3-5" UP AROUND CRATER LAKE. IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL, THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COAST RANGE AND INTO SISKIYOU
COUNTY EVENT, WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPING, SO AMOUNTS
THERE WILL BE LESS THAN THAT -- GENERALLY 0.25-0.50" (BULK OF
PRECIP COMING VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY). BUT, POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY IN MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW. IT'LL
REMAIN BREEZY AND TURN COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER. IT ALSO DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS
CHILLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS (LOW
TO MID 50S WEST SIDE AND UPPER 40S EAST SIDE). A CLOSED LOW WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL/NW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE AXIS TO FORM OVER US. THERE IS A WARM
FRONT IN THERE THAT COULD BRING SOME HIGHER POPS AND LIGHT PRECIP
FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES, BUT FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SOUTH
AND EASTWARD, SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILDER.
MODELS LIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUING IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-SPILDE/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ026-
029>031.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
CAZ081.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ084-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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