109
FXUS66 KMFR 121056
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 AM PST WED NOV 12 2025
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE DRY, SEASONABLY
MILD FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. YESTERDAY WAS A BIT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS THAT HELD THE FOG LONGER (HERE IN MEDFORD),
BUT OVERALL, THE LAST 5 DAYS OF DRY WEATHER HAVE AVERAGED SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE'LL SEE SOME FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE THROUGH ABOUT MID-LATE MORNING. PLEASE
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG THIS MORNING.
THE PATTERN CHANGES TODAY AS AN OFFSHORE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT
TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. WE'LL START WITH WHAT
HASN'T CHANGED -- WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AND MOVES CLOSER, PRESSURE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN AND
INVERSIONS BREAK. MFR-RDD GRADIENT PEAKS AROUND -6 MB WITH 700MB
FLOW INCREASING FROM 50-55 KT THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 70KT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ALIGNING WITH THE SHASTA
VALLEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH WIND WARNING WIND GUSTS (>58
MPH) THERE. THEY'LL ALSO ALIGN UP TO AROUND 850 MB OVER THE ROGUE
VALLEY, SO WE EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM ASHLAND UP TO
MEDFORD/CENTRAL POINT THAT COULD EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS (>45 MPH).
IT'LL ALSO GET BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG THE COAST, BUT GUSTS SHOULD
BE 35-50 MPH.
AS FOR THE THINGS THAT HAVE CHANGED -- IT APPEARS AS IF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TONIGHT THAT THE
STRONGEST JET MAX WILL BE FARTHER WEST. AS SUCH, WHILE STRONG,
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE EAST SIDE (GUSTS OF
50-55 MPH), WE THINK THEY'LL MOSTLY BE BELOW WARNING LEVELS AND
HAVE A WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE WINDY
AND GUSTS UP AT MT A COULD BE 70+ MPH. IN ADDITION, SINCE THE LOW
WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE, SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT COME DOWN AS
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY, SO LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. A TRICKY ASPECT TO THIS
STORM IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS, WHICH COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF WIND DURING THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS ARE BASICALLY SPLIT INTO 2 CAMPS. THE EC/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST (THROUGH
OUR COASTAL WATERS) AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH
FLOW BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO NW OREGON.
THE GEFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOWS THE LOW SPLITTING OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN BRANCH AND LARGELY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE EC/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS (WHICH
AMOUNT TO AROUND 40% OF THE MEMBERS) WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST THEN, WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
REMAINING MEMBERS KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
OFFSHORE. RIGHT NOW, WHILE WINDS CAN STILL BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY, THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY (~60% CHANCE) FOR
SUB-WARNING LEVEL WINDS, SO WE HAVE OPTED AGAINST ISSUING A HIGH
WIND WATCH. PLEASE NOTE, THOUGH, THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST, SO WE MAY HAVE TO MAKE UPDATES QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE FROM THE
CURRY COAST AND COAST RANGES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 1-3", WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGION
OF MT. SHASTA, WHERE AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES
(HEAVIEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY). NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS, BUT WE'RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
FLOODING AT THIS TIME. WEST SIDE VALLEYS ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT
OF DOWNSLOPE RAIN SHADOWING, SO WHAT LOOKED LIKE A DECENT STORM A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO MIGHT TURN OUT BEING A DUD. CURRENT FORECAST
PUTS MOST OF MEDFORD AT OR BELOW 0.10" FOR A STORM TOTAL, WHILE
SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS COULD GET 0.25-0.50". EVEN NORTH COASTAL
AREAS LOOK TO GET MUCH LESS RAINFALL.
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FINALLY DROP TO AROUND 5000-5500 FEET, BUT THIS IS ALSO
MUCH HIGHER THAN WE THOUGHT JUST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED IN OREGON, EXCEPT MAYBE UP AT
CRATER LAKE (EVEN THEN AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN 1"). POPS LOWER INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE BULK OF ANY ONSHORE FLOW PRECIP STAYING MOSTLY
TO OUR NORTH.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH EJECTING TO THE ENE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THAT
SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT COULD COME NORTHWARD INTO
THE SIERRA AND MAYBE NE CAL THEN. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OFFSHORE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. -SPILDE
AVIATION...12/06Z TAFS
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/LIFR IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, IMPACTING ROSEBURG, MEDFORD. HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT THOUGH AND
EXPECT FOG TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES,
INCLUDING AT KLAMATH FALLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, ACROSS INLAND AREAS EXPECT VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND VALLEY FOG
WILL LIFT AROUND 16-19Z. ALONG THE COAST EXPECT A MIX OF GENERALLY
IFR/MFR WITH LOCAL LIFR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEN, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR AROUND 17-21Z WITH SOME
LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AS A STRONG FRONT NEARS THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY, EXPECT
WINDS ALOFT TO INCREASE WITH WIND SHEAR AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG
THE COAST, INCLUDING NORTH BEND.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2025
A
STRONG FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TODAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH TWO PLAUSIBLE
SOLUTIONS. ONE IS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FARTHER SOUTH AND
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND LOWER SEAS. ANOTHER SOLUTION IS A DEEPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW OREGON. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 40%
OF SOLUTIONS BRING A STRONGER LOW NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH GEFS MEMBERS MOSTLY ALL TO THE SOUTH. A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED
THIS PAST EVENING SHIFT FOR THURSDAY TO COVER THE POTENTIAL, BUT
THERE'S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT WE'LL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL SUITE
BEFORE MAKING AN UPGRADE/EXTENSION DECISION.
OF COURSE, MUCH DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY, BUT SEAS AT
LEAST REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STEEP
WEST SWELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-15%) TOO OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS SHOWERS APPROACH THE SHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NORTHWEST SWELL AND FRESH SOUTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ026-
029>031.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR CAZ081.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ084-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4
AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
MAS/MAS/MAS
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