384
FXUS66 KMFR 140608
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1008 PM PST THU NOV 13 2025
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...14/06Z TAFS
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TO START.
HOWEVER WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING STABLE TONIGHT WILL SET THE
TABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE INLAND WESTSIDE VALLEYS,
INCLUDING MEDFORD AND ROSEBURG TERMINALS. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS
WILL OCCUR COULD VARY FROM WHAT'S IN THE TAF'S AND WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE, ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL
AT NORTH BEND TOWARDS 12Z.
THE WILD CARD WILL BE KLAMATH FALLS, BECAUSE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION OCCURRED RESULTING IN LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW
KEPT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY -PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2025
WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH, SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY STEEP WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE THE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND GALE WARNINGS END AT 10
PM PST. THIS IS BECAUSE SEAS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST SWELL AND
FRESH SOUTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE NEXT FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 218 PM PST THU NOV 13 2025/
DISCUSSION...A CUTOFF LOW LINGERING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST IS
CONTINUING TO DICTATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE CUTOFF IS BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS TERRAIN IN
LAKE, KLAMATH, AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS AT
COFFEE POT AND SUMMER LAKE HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE WIND PRODUCTS FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY ENDED THIS MORNING, THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE PERIODIC
GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING UPSLOPE
NEAR MOUNT SHASTA WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY, ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA DECREASES THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE ABSENT BY
FRIDAY EVENING. TROUGHING AROUND THE CUTOFF WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AT MOST, SOME HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT THROUGH THE SKY TO
START THE WEEKEND.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WEST SIDE AREAS HAVE
HIGH CHANCES (50-80%, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST) TO SEE RAINFALL BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, INITIAL SNOW LEVELS OF 7000-8000 FEET WILL KEEP
SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGELINES. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
4000-5000 FEET THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE UNIMPACTFUL.
ECMWF AND GFS METEOGRAMS KEEP SNOWFALL AT CRATER LAKE TO 2 TO 4
INCHES, WITH SOME AMBITIOUS OUTLIERS PREDICTING UP TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT. SAWYERS BAR ROAD WEST OF ETNA AND EAST SIDE
TERRAIN MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS FRONT,
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FOR LOWER ELEVATION EAST SIDE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION EASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT A COLD AIR MASS
COULD LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, THE OREGON COAST IS FORECAST TO
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 50S, WITH HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE CASCADES, AREA BASINS MAY SEE HIGHS
IN THE LOW 40S, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WOULD BE IN THE LOW 40S AT THE COAST. MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S, WHILE THE UMPQUA VALLEY
WOULD STAY CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD
SEE LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. ANY OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER MAY
REDUCE RADIATIVE COOLING AND ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.
ACTIVITY MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY IS ABUNDANT. DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IMAGERY SHOWS A
SOMEWHAT GLANCING BLOW FROM THE SYSTEM, WITH THE GFS MISSES THE AREA
COMPLETELY----. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MOUNT SHASTA CITY
GIVEN POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY FLOW, ECMWF MEMBERS EXPECT ANYWHERE BETWEEN
NOTHING AND 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC,
LEANING TOWARDS LOWER AMOUNTS BUT WITH MULTIPLE MEMBERS FORECASTING
OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION AT MOUNT SHASTA CITY. THE NBM IS
SIMILARLY UNCERTAIN, WITH EQUAL 25% CHANCES OF 2 INCHES AND 12
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE CASCADES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL,
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT EXPECTATIONS OF HOW MUCH THAT SOMETHING IS VARIES
SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THIS SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA AND HOW IT INTERACTS
WITH ANY LINGERING COLD AIR WILL BE A FOCUS OF FUTURE FORECASTS.
-TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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