050
FNUS76 KMFR 170235
FWSMFR
SPOT FORECAST FOR MANZANITA MACHINE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
635 PM PST SUN NOV 16 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 PST ON NOVEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INTERMITTENT SNOW TO THE BURN
SITE MONDAY, BUT ANY THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY MELT, RATHER THAN
ACCUMULATE (THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES.)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT. DRY WEATHER REMAINS
INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF PRECIP, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL SNOW. CHANCE OF PRECIPITAITON:
70 PERCENT. SNOW AMOUNT: TRACE-1".
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35.
MIN HUMIDITY........80-90 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....S 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO W OR NW 2-5 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........S 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH EARLY,
SHIFTING TO W OR NW 5-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....S 15-20 MPH BECOMING W OR NW 10-15 MPH.
CWR.................35 PERCENT.
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........A 40% CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. SNOW AMOUNT: 0-TRACE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-34.
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....N 1-3 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........N 2-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO NEAR SURFACE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
CWR.................26 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-42.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-70 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NE 1-4 MPH SHIFTING TO W OR NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........NE 5-7 MPH SHIFTING TO W OR NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NE 5-10 MPH BECOMING W OR NW.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
FORECASTER...SPILDE
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS CROWL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525879.1/MFR
.DELDT 11/17/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CHRISTOPHER.CROWL@USDA.GOV
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