023
FXUS66 KMFR 281347
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
547 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2025
DISCUSSION
MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCELLENT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. WE
SAY MOSTLY DRY BECAUSE THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF VERY WEAK TO WEAK
DISTURBANCES BRUSHING PAST OUR AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. TIMING LOOKS TO BE MAINLY BEFORE 10 AM THIS
MORNING FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM THE FIRST ONE, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FROM THE COAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS
AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR
AREA. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN ASPECT OF OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/FREEZING FOG. AN
INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY MAY HINDER THE CLEARING OF THE
VALLEY LOW CLOUDS. INVERSIONS LOOK TO BE STRONGER TONIGHT WITH
MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THE VALLEY FOG/FREEZING FOG ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
A SECOND/SIMILAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THE NEXT FORECAST
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN AREAL EXPANSION
AND/OR INCREASE IN SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY
BE WARRANTED, WITH THE 06Z GFS AS A NOTEWORTHY PORTION OF THE
MINORITY OF WETTER SOLUTIONS SHOWING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
FOR THE CASCADES AND WARNER MOUNTAINS AFTER 7 PM SATURDAY NIGHT
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH A SNOW LEVEL FALLING FROM AROUND
5000 FEET TO 4200 FEET MSL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, AN
EPISODE OF BUILDING WEST-NORTHWEST LONG PERIOD SWELL IS LIKELY
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION BELOW FOR THE
DESCRIPTION OF A RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.
THE THIRD VERY WEAK, AND POSSIBLY WEAKEST, DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS
FOR AN INCREASE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND A BRIEF EPISODE OF
VIRGA.
MORE ACTIVE, MORE BROADLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK, AS EARLY AS EARLY FRIDAY. BUT, THERE IS ALSO A SIZEABLE
CONTINGENT OF WEAKER SOLUTIONS THAT CONTINUE THE CURRENT THEME.
FOR NOW, WE WILL GO TOWARD A COMPROMISE, WITH A MENTION OF A
CHANCE OF MAINLY WEST SIDE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION...28/12Z TAFS
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR THE COAST AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
DOUGLAS AND KLAMATH COUNTIES NORTHWARD. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, PATCHY VALLEY IFR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
INCLUDING MEDFORD.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.
BUT, AREAS OF VALLEY LIFR/IFR ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UMPQUA/ROGUE/ILLINOIS AND LOWER KLAMATH
BASINS.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2025
GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST
SWELL IS ALSO DIMINISHING, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT NORTHERLY WINDS THEN INCREASE AND REMAIN GUSTY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT COULD RETURN SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A LONG PERIOD SWELL (PEAKING AROUND 6
TO 9 FT AT 16 TO 19 SECONDS) BUILDS IN THE WATERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK INTO WEDNESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF
UPDATED 300 AM PST FRIDAY, NOVEMBER
28, 2025...BUOY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SNEAKER
THREAT BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS A LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVING
MONDAY, FIRST ARRIVING AT AROUND 3 TO 5 FT AT 21 TO 22 SECONDS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE INCOMING HIGH TIDE THAT IS
ANTICIPATED BY 8 AM PST MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SNEAKER WAVES CAN
OCCUR AT ANY TIME, THE GREATEST RISK IS ON AN INCOMING TIDE. AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THIS POTENTIAL, WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
THIS SWELL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 7 TO 10 FT AT 16 TO 18
SECONDS MONDAY NIGHT, SO WE CURRENTLY DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO VISIT THE COAST NEXT
WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY, PLEASE BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL AND
CONSIDER RESCHEDULING YOUR VENTURES TO THE BEACHES FOR ANOTHER DAY.
SNEAKER WAVES RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON BEACHES THAN NORMAL.
THESE WAVES CAN WASH OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES AND CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK
PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE OCEAN. THEY CAN
ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE
CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. REMEMBER, NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
/BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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