106
FXUS66 KMFR 010538
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
938 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2025
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
AVIATION...01/06Z TAFS
ASIDE FROM PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, AND PATCHY LIFR IN THE GRANTS PASS AREA, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED ALONG THE COAST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES/KLAMATH
BASIN, SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD THERE. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
SCATTERED LIFR CONDITIONS AT NORTH BEND/COQUILLE BASIN, BUT EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM PERSISTING.
FOR THE ROGUE/ILLINOIS/APPLEGATE VALLEYS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN,
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN
CLEAR TO VFR BY 18-21Z. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2025
NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH. THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TONIGHT, WITH
STEEP SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BECOME STEEP NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON
TUESDAY. AN INCOMING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 7
TO 11 FT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A PERIOD AROUND 21 SECONDS.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE FOR THURSDAY, BUT THE PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO TURN MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 343 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2025/
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN HAS BUILT A
RESILIENT RIDGE, WITH THE FRONT EDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS PATTERN, SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP MIDLEVEL OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE SKY
DURING THE DAY. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND
AN "INSIDE SLIDER" (SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT TRAVEL DOWN THE RIDGE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO A DEEPER CONTINENTAL TROUGH) MAY INTERRUPT THE
GENERAL PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE FIRST SLIDER APPROACHES ON
MONDAY, RAISING OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL (25-50%) ARE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST AND
NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY RAIN THAT DOES
FALL IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURED IN THE HUNDRETHS OF AN
INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE
COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS IN THE UPPER PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME IMAGERY
SHOWING THE TROUGH TRAVELING FARTHER EAST. UNLESS THIS TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SHIFTS WEST, IT LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
THE NBM SHOWS SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BY A DAY.
DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY FOR THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MANAGING TO FLATTEN THE PACIFIC RIDGE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS
WEST OF AND ALONG THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE'S
SOME DIVERGENCE BEYOND, WITH THE ECMWF DRYING OUT BY SUNDAY AND THE
GFS STAYING ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
METEOGRAMS FOR BOTH MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE
DETERMINISTIC PATTERNS, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS ~20% OF ITS
MEMBERS SHOWING CONTINUING RAINFALL. IF THE GFS OUTCOME HOLDS TRUE,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A FOCUS OF FUTURE
FORECASTS. -TAD
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...UPDATED 100 PM PST SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30,
2025...GUIDANCE SHOWS A LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVING MONDAY, FIRST
ARRIVING AT AROUND 3 TO 5 FT AT 21 TO 22 SECONDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 7 TO 11 FT AT 16
TO 18 SECONDS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE SEAS
WILL BE STEEP, HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALONG
BEACHES. IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO VISIT THE COAST ON MONDAY, PLEASE BE
AWARE OF THIS SNEAKER WAVE POTENTIAL AND CONSIDER RESCHEDULING
YOUR VENTURES TO THE BEACHES FOR ANOTHER DAY. THESE WAVES CAN WASH
OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES AND CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR
FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE OCEAN. THEY CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR
OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH.
WHILE SNEAKER WAVES CAN OCCUR AT ANY TIME, THE GREATEST RISK IS ON
AN INCOMING TIDE. PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE TIDES IF VENTURING OUT
ONTO THE BEACHES. REMEMBER, NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM PST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7
AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
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