256
FXUS66 KMFR 081037
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 AM PST MON DEC 8 2025
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON WITH THE LOWEST CLOUDS/FOG NEAR
SEXTON SUMMIT AND THE ROGUE RIVER AREA. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
PRESENT IN MORE PARTS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, AND LOWER VISIBILITY WILL
COME TO MEDFORD TONIGHT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWER CEILING AND
VISIBILITY HAVE ALREADY REACHED KLAMATH FALLS TONIGHT. RADAR HAS
A FEW SHOWERS PASSING AS THEY MOVE EAST TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST,
IN PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, AND NEAR THE CASCADES. THROUGH THIS
MORNING, THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH A FEW HUNDRETHS FOR
MOST AREAS WITH NEAR 0.25"-0.50" IN AREAS THAT HAVE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SNOW LEVELS IN THE AFFECTED AREAS ARE NEAR 7,500 FEET
TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST OFF OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH NEAR PORTLAND AND
SEATTLE THIS WEEK. THE MAIN AREAS TO SEE THIS RAINFALL IN OUR AREA
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WHICH INCLUDES PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST, DOUGLAS COUNTY AND THE CASCADES. BETWEEN
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, VERY NORTHERN COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES WILL SEE 1"-1.5", AND SOME AREAS COULD NEAR
1.5"-2.5" NEAR THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BORDER. THE PROBABILITY OF
SEEING AN INCH OF RAIN WITHIN THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD NEARS 50-70% IN
THESE AREAS, DECREASING TO LESS THAN 25% HEADING SOUTH TOWARDS
ROSEBURG AND COQUILLE. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL TUESDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS WILL BE OCCURRING
ON ONE OF THE TWO DAYS, THERE IS A LOWER CONCERN FOR FLOODING WITH
THIS COMPARED TO AREAS NORTH OF US. EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH LESS THAN .15"
FROM CHEMULT TO FORT ROCK BEING THE MOST TO EXPECT.
ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE DRY, EAST SIDE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
STRONGER WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL JET
OF 50-60 KT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS AT 300 MB SHOW THAT STRONG WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE SURFACE DURING THAT TIME WITH GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS INCLUDES AREAS NEAR
SILVER LAKE, SUMMER LAKE, AND PAISLEY. PLEASE SEE THE NPWMFR FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TAKES CONTROL AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN AREA THAT KEEPS THE SHOWER
CHANCES IS THE COAST, BUT WE WILL WATCH TO SEE IF THESE TREND DRIER
AS WELL. MODEL DIFFERENCES COME NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE EC FAVORING
MORE PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONGER LOW FORECAST THAN THE GFS. IN THE
MEANTIME, WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR HOW THE SYSTEM THE NEXT FEW DAYS
MOVES THROUGH AND HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. -9
AVIATION...08/06Z TAFS
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS RESULTING IN A
VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS PRESENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE BRINGING A
MIX OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST, MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND ILLINOIS VALLEY, AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ANY LEVEL OF CLEARING THIS
OVERNIGHT, LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, BUT
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO AT LEAST LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF THESE LIFR CONDITIONS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR
AND AT THE RIDGES. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 215 AM PST MONDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2025
SOUTH WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH STEEP SEAS CONTINUING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO INTO
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AND STEEP SEAS
SPREAD TO ALL AREAS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY, AND WINDS COULD APPROACH GALES LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AROUND MID-WEEK AS
WINDS EASE AND SEAS BECOME SWELL DOMINATED. -9
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
ORZ030-031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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