108
FXUS66 KMFR 081737
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
937 AM PST MON DEC 8 2025
DISCUSSION
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MOIST PLUME TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION. WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
TO THE CASCADES/DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER, STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG
OUR DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BORDER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF IMPACTFUL
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL TO THE NORTH OF THOSE LOCATIONS. FARTHER
SOUTH, LITTLE OR NO RAIN WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE
(INCLUDING HERE IN MEDFORD, MOST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON). BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE CASCADES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 TONIGHT AND COULD BRING
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS (45 MPH) TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
TYPICALLY CHANNELED VALLEYS. WE HAVE A WIND ADVISORY UP FOR THOSE
AREAS, PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 31 FROM SILVER LAKE TO VALLEY
FALLS. OTHER THAN THAT, LOWER CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACT FOR THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS/MORNINGS (THROUGH
LATE WEEK). COLD MORNINGS CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, THU-SAT. NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WON'T
COME UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AT THE EARLIEST. -SPILDE
AVIATION...08/18Z TAFS
SOME LOWER CEILINGS PERSIST AT MEDFORD
THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THESE TO LIFT TO MVFR, THEN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR FOR A WHILE INTO THIS EVENING.
THEN EXPECT, LOWER CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, DOWN TO MVFR, THEN IFR/LIFR. AREAS OF FOG AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT DEVELOP NEAR THE CASCADES AND OVER THE EAST SIDE IN OREGON
(NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140) TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD EXPERIENCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THERE (NE OF KLAMATH FALLS) SINCE A
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION PROBABLY DOESN'T ALLOW THESE WINDS TO MIX ALL
THE WAY TO THE SURFACE IN SOME VALLEYS. EVEN SO, VERTICAL MIXING
MAY IMPROVE TUESDAY TO ALLOW SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
AROUND SUMMER LAKE EASTWARD. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 815 AM PST MONDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2025
SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH STEEP SEAS CONTINUING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
INTO THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AND
STEEP SEAS SPREAD TO ALL AREAS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WINDS COULD APPROACH GALES LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AROUND MID-WEEK AS WINDS EASE AND SEAS BECOME SWELL DOMINATED. -9
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
ORZ030-031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
MAS/ANH/JWG
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