034
FXUS66 KMFR 131735
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
935 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2025
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG IN
SIMILAR AREAS AS YESTERDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT BREAK UP IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY YESTERDAY, BUT THEY DID IN PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON YESTERDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE TODAY
IS THE LOW CLOUD LAYER IS NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS THE PAST FEW DAYS,
AND NOT AS EXTENSIVE, ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. THEREFORE
IT COULD CLEAR OUT AT LEAST IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT IT STILL COULD REMAIN SOCKED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE VALLEYS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED LOWER. ALSO ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE SKY COVER TO BETTER CAPTURE THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
VALLEYS MENTIONED ABOVE.
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL RUN INTO A
RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WORST CASE WILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN
NORTHWEST DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN COOS COUNTY, OTHERWISE IT'S LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRY DESPITE WHAT THE NBM SOLUTION IS SHOWING WHICH IS AN
OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL, AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...13/18Z TAFS
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
LIKELY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE
PRESENT IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT MEDFORD, ROSEBURG, AND OTHER AREA TERMINALS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18-20Z SATURDAY. SOME AREAS, SUCH AS
MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS MAY SEE LITTLE OR NO CLEARING, AND JUST SEE
CEILINGS LIFT HIGHER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO MVFR.
ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A
MARINE STRATUS SURGE MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST (CLOSE TO 10 NM FROM
SHORE AND BEYOND) THAT COULD IMPACT THE SOUTH COAST TOWARDS 0Z.
MEANWHILE A WEAK FRONT COULD RESULT IN MARINE STRATUS FORMATION FOR
THE NORTH COAST TOWARDS 12Z RESULTING IN MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS.
EAST OF THE CASCADES, SATELLITE AND WEB CAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE
FOG/LOW CLOUD LAYER AT KLAMATH FALLS IS SHALLOW AND COULD CLEAR OUT
WITHING THE HOUR (TOWARDS 19Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT COULD RE-FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST SATURDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2025
WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TODAY, THEN INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STEEP SEAS IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO EARLY
SUNDAY.
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE WEATHER
WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1
AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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