056
FXUS66 KMFR 041153
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
SHORT TERM
ALTHOUGH WE'VE HAD PLENTY OF WIND AND COLDER RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS, THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY TO NEAR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TODAY'S HIGH OF 60 DEGREES IS NOW THE NEW RECORD HIGH,
PASSING THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES FROM 1927. MORE LOCATIONS IN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES HAD MAX GUSTS
AROUND 45-55 MPH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WEST SIDE VALLEYS SAW MAX
GUSTS NEAR 30-40 MPH. THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE CURRY COUNTY
COAST AND SHASTA VALLEY ARE FINISHING AT 4 AM, AND THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 AM
AS GUSTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED AT 40-50 MPH. 24-HOUR RAIN
TOTALS FOR SATURDAY AT THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST INCLUDED VALUES
OF 1.00"-1.50" AND A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS NEAR 2.00". MORE AREAS OF
WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY SAW 0.50"- 0.75"
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEADING EASTWARD, DAILY TOTALS OF 0.25"- 0.50"
ARE FOUND BEFORE IT LOWERS TO NEAR 0.10" IN LAKE COUNTY.
RADAR SHOWS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES HAVE STEADY RAIN MOVING
THROUGH. IT IS FORECAST TO HAVE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION/A SMALL BREAK
FROM ABOUT 7 AM-10 AM. BETWEEN THAT TIME FRAME WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST AFTER 10 AM AND WILL IMPACT
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 4,000'-5,000' RANGE. TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL FROM 4
AM TODAY- 10 PM WILL BE HEAVIEST AT THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AROUND AN
INCH, AND INLAND SPOTS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL RECEIVE AROUND
0.25"-0.50". SLIGHTLY LESS IS FORECAST IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
SNOWFALL LEVELS WILL FALL TO 3,500'-4,000' MONDAY MORNING WHILE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL MONDAY'S
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND JOSEPHINE AND
JACKSON COUNTIES. A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IS FORECAST TO FALL
MONDAY WITH THE MOST SNOWFALL FALLING BETWEEN 4 AM-10 AM SUNDAY IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WITH THE LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, 1-3 INCHES COULD
FALL ALONG I-5 NEAR MT SHASTA.
LONG TERM
ACTIVITY PAUSES BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA OVER THE PACIFIC. PRECIPITATION
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. INITIAL SNOW LEVELS OF 4000 FEET COULD DROP TO 2000-2500
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SNOWFALL AROUND CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE, WITH PERIODS
NEARING WARNING THRESHOLDS. BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS FORECAST OVER THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET, WITH UP TO 24 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGELINES. WILLAMETTE PASS MAY ALSO SEE
OVER A FOOT OF SNOWFALL, WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES REACHING CHEMULT AND
CHILOQUIN. I-5 AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT AND BETWEEN WEED AND DUNSMUIR
MAY ALSO SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AS A PRELIMINARY FORECAST.
TERRAIN IN SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWFALL.
OTHER AREAS WOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OR LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A STABLE PERIOD UNDER A PACIFIC RIDGE
REMAINS THE OVERALL EXPECTATION. WHILE GFS METEOGRAM GUIDANCE STILL
WANTS TO KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, EC
METEOGRAMS AND DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY FOR BOTH MODELS IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AFTER THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY FRONT. -TAD
AVIATION...04/12Z TAFS
THE COAST HAS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING WHILE INLAND TERMINAL SITES ARE VFR. SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE PRESENT TONIGHT. BY 15-16Z, THERE WILL BE
A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND CONDITIONS COULD TURN TO MVFR/IFR.
WEAKENING WINDS AT MEDFORD COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO FOG, AND THIS IS
IN THE TAF AT 15Z.
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE PROBABLE NEAR MEDFORD(KMFR)
AND ROSEBURG(KRBG) LATER TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY, A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AGAIN AS THIS RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND SHEAR AND WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AS
THE LOW SPLITS BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND CALIFORNIA. -SMITH/-9
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST SUNDAY, JANUARY 4, 2026
GALES AND
VERY STEEP SEAS PEAKING NEAR 15 FEET DOMINATED BY VERY STEEP WIND
WAVES AND SOUTH FRESH SWELL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 AM. STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF NORTHWEST SWELL AND
LINGERING FRESH SOUTH SWELL. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LONG PERIOD
SWELL TO ARRIVE OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME HIGH AND
STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF
UPDATED 200 AM PST SUNDAY, JANUARY 4,
2026...LONG PERIOD SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER THE MARINE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE SHOWING THE SWELL ARRIVING AT 3-6
FEET AT 20-25 SECONDS, WHICH INITIALLY POSES A RISK FOR SNEAKER
WAVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN, AS THE SWELL BUILDS TO 13-
18 FEET, HIGH SURF RISK INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT'S
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
BEACH HAZARD AND/OR HIGH SURF PRODUCTS. -SPILDE
COASTAL FLOODING...UPDATED 200 AM PST SUNDAY, JANUARY 4, 2026
REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS ASSOCIATED WITH TIDAL
OVERFLOW (HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND STORM SURGE) WERE RECEIVED
FROM CITY OFFICIALS IN COOS BAY DURING JANUARY 3RD'S HIGH TIDE. AS
SUCH, ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY'S
HIGH TIDE (2 HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER), WHICH OCCURS AT 1204 PM PST. -
SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ORZ022.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ027.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ080-082-083.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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