949
FXUS66 KMFR 052248
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
248 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
DISCUSSION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE LAST SIGNS OF ACTIVITY REMAINING
AROUND MOUNT SHASTA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AT
4500-5500 FEET IN THIS PERIOD, KEEPING ANY STRAY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER TERRAIN.
A PAIR OF FEATURES WILL BRING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AND WINTER
WEATHER CONCERNS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
FIRST WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE OREGON COAST AND THE
CASCADES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING SHORT OF
ADVISORY LEVELS. LINGERING SNOW LEVELS OF 4000-4500 FEET WILL KEEP
SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THE WEST-TO-EAST PATH WILL SUPPORT
CONSTANT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS CLOSELY BEHIND THE FIRST WEAK FRONT,
BRINGING INITIAL RAIN TO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE, A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL TAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS OF 4000 FEET DOWN
TO 2000-3000 FEET ON THURSDAY. THESE FALLING SNOW LEVELS WILL
BRING SNOW FARTHER DOWN THE FOOTHILLS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
CASCADES, AND GENERALLY UNIMPACTFUL SNOWFALL FARTHER EAST. TO THE
WEST, SMALL CHANGES IN EXPECTED SNOW LEVELS CAN MEANINGFULLY
CHANGE THE IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. PARTS OF THE
APPLEGATE (RUCH) AND SOUTHERN ROGUE (ASHLAND- TALENT) MAY SEE
LIGHT SNOWFALL, BUT ACCUMULATION ON VALLEY FLOORS IS NOT EXPECTED.
WHILE CONSIDERATIONS OF THE UNEXPECTED MONDAY MORNING SNOWFALL IN
THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS ARE FRESH, THE SCALE OF THESE
MIDWEEK FRONTS DOES NOT SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR LOCAL COLD AIR
DAMMING THAT CAUSED WEST SIDE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
FOR THE 48 HOURS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
OVER THE CASCADES, 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
ELEVATIONS OVER 3500 FEET. 20 TO 30 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGELINES. CURRENTLY, THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS AROUND 5000
FEET (EX: LAKE OF THE WOODS, CRESCENT LAKE), 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED (80-90% CHANCES) AND 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE (50-60%
CHANCES). HIGHWAY 138 NEAR DIAMOND LAKE HAS A 50% CHANCE TO SEE 16
INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE HIGHWAY 89 NEAR CRATER LAKE HAS A 80-90%
CHANCE. WILLAMETTE PASS HAS A 70-80% CHANCE FOR 16 INCHES OF SNOW.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, HIGHWAY 66 HAS A 40-60% CHANCE TO GET 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN ARE HIGHWAY 97 NORTH OF CHILOQUIN, WHERE 6
TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENT. EAST SIDE
TERRAIN (INCLUDING HIGHWAY 299 AT CEDAR PASS) COULD ALSO SEE 4 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW. WEST OF THE CASCADES, SAWYERS BAR ROAD WEST OF
ETNA IS FORECAST TO GET 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. SISKIYOU SUMMIT
COULD GET 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AMOUNTS VARYING AS SNOW LEVELS SHIFT.
HIGHWAY 89, OTHER PARTS OF INTERSTATE 5 NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
AND OTHER SISKIYOU COUNTY ROADWAYS LOOK TO ONLY GET TRACE
AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE, HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WITH BREAKING
WAVES OF 22-26 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR OTHER AREAS NOT
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESSED IN THIS BRIEFING, ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS (WEST OF THE CASCADES) OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (EAST OF
THE CASCADES) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
BEYOND THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY EVENTS, A STABLE PERIOD REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. VALLEY FOG MAY BE A CONSIDERATION FOR SOME AREAS, BUT
OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. -TAD
AVIATION...05/18Z TAFS
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR INLAND AREAS WEST OF
THE CASCADES, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER LOWER ELEVATION AREAS AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER TERRAIN. GENERALLY, FLIGHT LEVELS WEST OF THE
CASCADES ARE VFR OR MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR (MEDFORD) OR LIFR
(TERRAIN AROUND MOUNT SHASTA) PRESENT. FOR THE OREGON COAST AND EAST
SIDE AREA, VFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LESS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VALLEY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA AND ROGUE VALLEYS, BUT SIGNALS ARE
CURRENTLY WEAK IN GUIDANCE. BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD, A FRONT LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 5, 2026
WINDS BECOME
NORTH TODAY AND COULD BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. CHOPPY SEAS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THERE
DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY LONG PERIOD SWELL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BUILDING AND STEEPENING SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF
UPDATED 300 AM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 5,
2026...LONG PERIOD SWELL, ORIGINATING FROM A STORM ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE SHOWING THE SWELL ARRIVING AT 3-6 FEET AT 20-25
SECONDS, WHICH INITIALLY POSES A RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN, AS THE SWELL BUILDS TO 13-18 FEET,
HIGH SURF RISK INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE BEACH HAZARD AND/OR HIGH SURF
PRODUCTS. -SPILDE/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ025-
027-028.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ025-027-028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-
029-030.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080-
082-083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4
PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
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