871
FXUS66 KMFR 060031
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
431 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...06/00Z TAFS
ALONG THE COAST, SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF
AND CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR. AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR INLAND AREAS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR IN SHOWERS AND MVFR IN VALLEYS
WEST OF THE CASCADES. LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT IFR AND
LOCAL LIFR TO DEVELOP FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS WITH AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN SHOWERS. LIFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP
IN THE UMPQUA AND ROGUE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.
HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS MAY PERSIST IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES,
INCLUDING ROSEBURG, MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 248 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026/
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE LAST SIGNS OF ACTIVITY REMAINING
AROUND MOUNT SHASTA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AT
4500-5500 FEET IN THIS PERIOD, KEEPING ANY STRAY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER TERRAIN.
A PAIR OF FEATURES WILL BRING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AND WINTER
WEATHER CONCERNS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
FIRST WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE OREGON COAST AND THE
CASCADES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING SHORT OF
ADVISORY LEVELS. LINGERING SNOW LEVELS OF 4000-4500 FEET WILL KEEP
SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THE WEST-TO-EAST PATH WILL SUPPORT
CONSTANT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS CLOSELY BEHIND THE FIRST WEAK FRONT,
BRINGING INITIAL RAIN TO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE, A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL TAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS OF 4000 FEET DOWN
TO 2000-3000 FEET ON THURSDAY. THESE FALLING SNOW LEVELS WILL
BRING SNOW FARTHER DOWN THE FOOTHILLS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
CASCADES, AND GENERALLY UNIMPACTFUL SNOWFALL FARTHER EAST. TO THE
WEST, SMALL CHANGES IN EXPECTED SNOW LEVELS CAN MEANINGFULLY
CHANGE THE IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. PARTS OF THE
APPLEGATE (RUCH) AND SOUTHERN ROGUE (ASHLAND- TALENT) MAY SEE
LIGHT SNOWFALL, BUT ACCUMULATION ON VALLEY FLOORS IS NOT EXPECTED.
WHILE CONSIDERATIONS OF THE UNEXPECTED MONDAY MORNING SNOWFALL IN
THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS ARE FRESH, THE SCALE OF THESE
MIDWEEK FRONTS DOES NOT SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR LOCAL COLD AIR
DAMMING THAT CAUSED WEST SIDE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
FOR THE 48 HOURS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
OVER THE CASCADES, 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
ELEVATIONS OVER 3500 FEET. 20 TO 30 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGELINES. CURRENTLY, THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS AROUND 5000
FEET (EX: LAKE OF THE WOODS, CRESCENT LAKE), 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED (80-90% CHANCES) AND 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE (50-60%
CHANCES). HIGHWAY 138 NEAR DIAMOND LAKE HAS A 50% CHANCE TO SEE 16
INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE HIGHWAY 89 NEAR CRATER LAKE HAS A 80-90%
CHANCE. WILLAMETTE PASS HAS A 70-80% CHANCE FOR 16 INCHES OF SNOW.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, HIGHWAY 66 HAS A 40-60% CHANCE TO GET 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN ARE HIGHWAY 97 NORTH OF CHILOQUIN, WHERE 6
TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENT. EAST SIDE
TERRAIN (INCLUDING HIGHWAY 299 AT CEDAR PASS) COULD ALSO SEE 4 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW. WEST OF THE CASCADES, SAWYERS BAR ROAD WEST OF
ETNA IS FORECAST TO GET 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. SISKIYOU SUMMIT
COULD GET 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AMOUNTS VARYING AS SNOW LEVELS SHIFT.
HIGHWAY 89, OTHER PARTS OF INTERSTATE 5 NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
AND OTHER SISKIYOU COUNTY ROADWAYS LOOK TO ONLY GET TRACE
AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE, HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WITH BREAKING
WAVES OF 22-26 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR OTHER AREAS NOT
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESSED IN THIS BRIEFING, ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS (WEST OF THE CASCADES) OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (EAST OF
THE CASCADES) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
BEYOND THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY EVENTS, A STABLE PERIOD REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. VALLEY FOG MAY BE A CONSIDERATION FOR SOME AREAS, BUT
OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 5, 2026...WINDS BECOME
NORTH TODAY AND COULD BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. CHOPPY SEAS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THERE
DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY LONG PERIOD SWELL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BUILDING AND STEEPENING SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...UPDATED 300 AM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 5,
2026...LONG PERIOD SWELL, ORIGINATING FROM A STORM ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE SHOWING THE SWELL ARRIVING AT 3-6 FEET AT 20-25
SECONDS, WHICH INITIALLY POSES A RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN, AS THE SWELL BUILDS TO 13-18 FEET,
HIGH SURF RISK INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE BEACH HAZARD AND/OR HIGH SURF
PRODUCTS. -SPILDE/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ025-027-028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ029-030.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4
PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
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