430
FXUS66 KMFR 061127
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
327 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
DISCUSSION
WEAK RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. EVEN SO, THERE STILL HAS BEEN SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MT. SHASTA REGION, WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW THERE TO PERSIST DURING THE NIGHT (IT JUST RECENTLY
ENDED). OTHER THAN THAT, IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE ENTRENCHED
OVER MOST OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND PATCHY FOG. SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR TODAY,
THOUGH IT PROBABLY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THEN, A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL COME SOUTHEASTWARD IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WE CAN
ALREADY SEE THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST
JET (AND THE NEXT DISTURBANCE) STREAKING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND
INTO WASHINGTON/NW OREGON. PRECIPITATION IS BREAKING OUT UP THERE
THIS MORNING, AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN/SNOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE WEST SIDE DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE GENERALLY
AROUND 4000 FEET, BUT WILL BE A BIT LOWER (DOWN TO AS LOW AS 3000
FEET ACROSS THE NORTH - NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY). SNOW WILL PICK
UP ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND WILL BE
QUICK-HITTING WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
OCCURRING IN A 6 HOUR WINDOW BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM PST. SNOWFALL
RATES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR RANGE
(PROBABILITY OF 1"/HR RATES IS 60-80% FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
DURING THE NIGHT). MOST OF THE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR
FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 66 NORTHWARD WITH SOME SPILLOVER ONTO HIGHWAY
97 NORTH OF CHILOQUIN. MODELS ARE SHOWING A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER COLDER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, WHICH WILL RE-ENERGIZE
SNOW OVER THE CASCADES/FOOTHILLS WITH MORE SPILLOVER TO THE EAST
SIDE AND INTO THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING SISKIYOU SUMMIT).
WE HAVE WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, JACKSON COUNTY
ABOVE 2000 FEET AND ALSO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, SO PLEASE REFER
TO THOSE PRODUCTS FOR THE SPECIFICS ON AMOUNTS, TIMING AND
IMPACTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS TOO
(40-50 MPH), BUT HIGHEST EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE SUMMER LAKE AREA FOR GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO
AROUND 1500 FEET, MAYBE EVEN 1000 FEET IN SOME OF THE LOCATIONS
THAT TYPICALLY SEE LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN THESE SITUATIONS (ILLINOIS
VALLEY, MAYBE LOWER KLAMATH VALLEY IN NW SISKIYOU COUNTY)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON HIGHWAY 199 SOUTH OF GRANTS PASS, THE PASSES
ON I-5 NORTH OF GRANTS PASS (SEXTON, STAGE RD, SMITH HILL AND
CANYON MT) AND ALSO HIGHWAY 96 NEAR HAPPY CAMP. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ABOUT A 40-70% CHANCE OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN HERE AT MEDFORD,
BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. THIS IS MORE LIKELY UP IN EAST
MEDFORD, JACKSONVILLE AND ASHLAND, WHERE ELEVATIONS RISE TO NEAR
2000 FEET.
THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE'LL HEAD
INTO A DRY, STABLE PERIOD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME COLD
NIGHTS AHEAD, ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE'S FRESH SNOW COVER, ALONG
THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST SIDE VALLEY FOG/FREEZING FOG. BUT, OVERALL,
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOOKING FAIRLY LOW-IMPACT AT THIS TIME.
-SPILDE
AVIATION...06/06Z TAFS
SHOWERS ARE BECOMING ISOLATED TONIGHT WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN
VALLEYS AND FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN FOG ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEYS WITH AREAS OF MVFR
WITH OR NEAR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR. LINGERING IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR
SOME VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH RAIN TO THE COAST. PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF MVFR WILL SPREAD
INLAND TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2026
WINDS
BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELL THEN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
PRODUCING VERY STEEP SEAS AND DANGEROUS BAR AND SURF CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF
UPDATED 300 AM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 6,
2026...LONG PERIOD SWELL, ORIGINATING FROM A STORM ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON
WATERS TONIGHT, THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SWELL
ARRIVES AT 3-6 FEET AT 20-25 SECONDS, WHICH INITIALLY POSES A
RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN, AS THE SWELL
BUILDS TO 15-20 FEET, HIGH SURF RISK INCREASES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF
22 TO 26 FEET. WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THIS
RISK. PLEASE STAY OFF JETTIES AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF ZONE AS
BEACHES WILL BE DANGEROUS DUE TO HIGH SURF CONDITIONS. -SPILDE/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ026-029-030.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ025-027-028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
MAS
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