606
FXUS66 KMFR 062240
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
240 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
TWO COLD FRONTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
BRING HIGH WINTER IMPACTS TO THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
DOWN TO 2000 FEET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW FALLING DOWN
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
CLOUDY SKIES AND RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT.
MODEL DATA SHOWS SNOW LEVELS RISING AS SOME WARM AIR PUSHES INTO
OREGON THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN OUR
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET ALONG THIS FRONT
BEFORE DROPPING TO 3000 FEET INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE'LL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATION IMPACTS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1" AN HOUR BETWEEN
10PM AND 4AM. OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS OK, WITH ABOUT 20 TO PERHAPS 30
KNOTS OF WESTERLY FLOW DURING MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME, THE AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO BE RATHER UNSTABLE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
AND THE SPC HREF LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES ARE PICKING UP ON A 30
TO 40% CHANCE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITHIN SOUTHERN OREGON
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THERE MIGHT BE SOME HEFTY
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND THEY MAY
DROP THE SNOW LEVEL SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER,
A 10TH PERCENTILE NBM SNOW LEVEL FORECAST IS AROUND 2000 TO 2300
FEET, WHICH STILL SEEMS HIGH. LOOKING AT THE WET BULB ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATES AROUND 2000 FEET NEAR CANYON PASS AND THOSE LOWER I5
PASSES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES OF THAT ARE
SEEMINGLY LOW(~10%).
EVENTUALLY, THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVIER
SNOW TO THE CASCADES OVER SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET BEFORE THEY
FALL FURTHER TO 2000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO FALL DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS, BUT ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL BASED ON THE ENSEMBLES AND PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION, THESE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST COLD FRONTS
RARELY PRODUCE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW HERE AT THE OFFICE IN ALL MY
YEARS HERE WITH JUST SOME SNOW FLURRIES FALLING. WITH THAT BEING
SAID THE NBM HAS A 10% CHANCE OF 1" OF SNOW AT MFR, LIKELY BASED
ON A FEW ECMWF ENS MEMBERS THAT ARE AMBITIOUS WITH THE SNOW
FORECAST.
OVERALL, THIS EVENT WILL BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR THE CASCADES
WITH AROUND 2 FEET OR SNOW OVER THE HIGH CASCADES AROUND 4500 TO
5000 FEET. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX(EFI) IS NOT AS EXCITED ON
THE OTHER HAND, WITH A SMALL AREA OF EFI VALUES NEAR 0.8.
HOWEVER, THE EFI IS PARSED UP BY 24 HOUR PERIODS.
THE TROUGH AXIS BRINGING US THIS WEATHER WILL PUSH THROUGH OREGON
AND FARTHER EAST THURSDAY. THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR WILL STILL ALLOW
SOME SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AS SNOW LEVELS
RISE SLIGHTLY. SOME MAY CONSIDER IT TO BE A COLD DAY IN MEDFORD
WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 41, ALTHOUGH THAT IS ONLY 5 DEGREES BELOW THE
NORMAL HIGH OF 46 FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WE'LL LIKELY SEE FOG AND FREEZING FOG WITHIN THE VALLEYS. THERE
WILL BE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST AROUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
MODELS WANT TO BRING A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR TO THE REGION
AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW, IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING ANOTHER WARM RAIN TO THE REGION AS SNOW LEVELS
SHOOT UP TO 6000+ FEET.
-SMITH
AVIATION...07/00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST, WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TODAY, AND SOME OFTHE WEST SIDE V
ALLEYS, SUCH AS AT MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS, WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN STUCK UNDER INVERSIONS ALL DAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION,
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER TERRAIN, ALONG THE COAST, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 3000-4000 MSL. LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
-BPN
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2026
A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, PRODUCING
VERY STEEP SEAS AND DANGEROUS BAR AND SURF CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-SPILDE/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ026-029-030.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ025-027-028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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