567
FXUS66 KMFR 070648
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1048 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
DISCUSSION
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED THIS EVENING TO ADJUST SNOW
LEVELS LOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE
LATTER, WEAKER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING SNOW EVENT. THIS ALSO
INCORPORATED AN ABILITY TO ADD SOME FURTHER DETAILS INTO THE
WINTER STORM WARNING /PDXWSWMFR/. FIRST, A LESS POTENT FRONT WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 TO 4500 FEET WILL DELIVER AROUND 4 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES FROM
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS/HIGHWAY 140 NORTHWARD TO CRATER
LAKE/DIAMOND LAKE/WILLAMETTE PASS. UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY NEAR CHEMULT AND
CRESCENT.
A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 6 AM PST UNTIL LATE
MORNING. THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE MORE POTENT, COLDER, AND OF
LONGER DURATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TO THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
NOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST FROM THE COAST TO THE
CASCADES DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO AROUND 2000 FEET. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, EARLY ON
THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO AROUND 1500
FEET, NEAR MANY WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS. EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SNOW WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 10 TO
20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND 3 TO
10 INCHES FOR THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
FOR BUTTE FALLS AND PROSPECT, WITH AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH FOR
THE INTERSTATE 5 PASSES BETWEEN GRANTS PASS AND CANYONVILLE, AS
WELL AS EAST MEDFORD, ASHLAND, ROGUE RIVER, KLAMATH FALLS, AND
YREKA.
THERE IS ALSO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN OREGON
BEACHES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
/PDXCFWMFR/.
A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...07/06Z TAFS
AN APPROACHING FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE OREGON COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AFFECTED TERMINALS. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES, WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
EAST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING
LOCALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS OBSCURING
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS OF 3500-4500 FEET WILL KEEP MOST
SNOWFALL OVER AREA TERRAIN.
ACTIVITY DECREASES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL STILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CASCADES. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS
FROM 3000-4000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO 1500-2000 FEET BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR
VALLEY FLOORS WEST OF THE CASCADES, THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING VISIBILITIES OVER WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY BE PRESENT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2026
A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, PRODUCING
VERY STEEP SEAS AND DANGEROUS BAR AND SURF CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-SPILDE/BPN
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF
UPDATED 200 PM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 6,
2026...LONG PERIOD SWELL, ORIGINATING FROM A STORM ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON
WATERS TONIGHT, THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SWELL
ARRIVES AT 3-6 FEET AT 20-25 SECONDS, WHICH INITIALLY POSES A
RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN, AS THE SWELL
BUILDS TO 15-20 FEET, HIGH SURF RISK INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 22 TO 26 FEET.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE STAY OFF JETTIES AND
REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF ZONE AS BEACHES WILL BE DANGEROUS DUE TO
THESE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS. -SPILDE/BPN
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 954 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026/
SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
BRING HIGH WINTER IMPACTS TO THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
DOWN TO 2000 FEET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW FALLING DOWN
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES AND RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT.
MODEL DATA SHOWS SNOW LEVELS RISING AS SOME WARM AIR PUSHES INTO
OREGON THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN OUR
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET ALONG THIS FRONT
BEFORE DROPPING TO 3000 FEET INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE'LL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATION IMPACTS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1" AN HOUR BETWEEN
10PM AND 4AM. OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS OK, WITH ABOUT 20 TO PERHAPS 30
KNOTS OF WESTERLY FLOW DURING MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME, THE AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO BE RATHER UNSTABLE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
AND THE SPC HREF LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES ARE PICKING UP ON A 30
TO 40% CHANCE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITHIN SOUTHERN OREGON
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THERE MIGHT BE SOME HEFTY
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND THEY MAY
DROP THE SNOW LEVEL SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER,
A 10TH PERCENTILE NBM SNOW LEVEL FORECAST IS AROUND 2000 TO 2300
FEET, WHICH STILL SEEMS HIGH. LOOKING AT THE WET BULB ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATES AROUND 2000 FEET NEAR CANYON PASS AND THOSE LOWER I5
PASSES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES OF THAT ARE
SEEMINGLY LOW(~10%).
EVENTUALLY, THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVIER
SNOW TO THE CASCADES OVER SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET BEFORE THEY
FALL FURTHER TO 2000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO FALL DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS, BUT ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL BASED ON THE ENSEMBLES AND PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION, THESE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST COLD FRONTS
RARELY PRODUCE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW HERE AT THE OFFICE IN ALL MY
YEARS HERE WITH JUST SOME SNOW FLURRIES FALLING. WITH THAT BEING
SAID THE NBM HAS A 10% CHANCE OF 1" OF SNOW AT MFR, LIKELY BASED
ON A FEW ECMWF ENS MEMBERS THAT ARE AMBITIOUS WITH THE SNOW
FORECAST.
OVERALL, THIS EVENT WILL BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR THE CASCADES
WITH AROUND 2 FEET OR SNOW OVER THE HIGH CASCADES AROUND 4500 TO
5000 FEET. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX(EFI) IS NOT AS EXCITED ON
THE OTHER HAND, WITH A SMALL AREA OF EFI VALUES NEAR 0.8.
HOWEVER, THE EFI IS PARSED UP BY 24 HOUR PERIODS.
THE TROUGH AXIS BRINGING US THIS WEATHER WILL PUSH THROUGH OREGON
AND FARTHER EAST THURSDAY. THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR WILL STILL ALLOW
SOME SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AS SNOW LEVELS
RISE SLIGHTLY. SOME MAY CONSIDER IT TO BE A COLD DAY IN MEDFORD
WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 41, ALTHOUGH THAT IS ONLY 5 DEGREES BELOW THE
NORMAL HIGH OF 46 FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WE'LL LIKELY SEE FOG AND FREEZING FOG WITHIN THE VALLEYS. THERE
WILL BE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST AROUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
MODELS WANT TO BRING A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR TO THE REGION
AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW, IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING ANOTHER WARM RAIN TO THE REGION AS SNOW LEVELS
SHOOT UP TO 6000+ FEET.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ026-029-030.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ025-027-028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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