040
FXUS66 KMFR 071139
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 AM PST WED JAN 7 2026
DISCUSSION
TWO FRONTS WILL BRING IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER TO
THE AREA NOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ONE IS MOVING THROUGH
QUICKLY RIGHT NOW. RADAR IMAGERY AT THIS EARLY HOUR IS SHOWING
THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS. SNOW LEVELS ARE UP AROUND 3500 FEET AT THE
MOMENT, BUT COULD LOWER TO 3000 FEET IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
SNOWFALL RATES ARE AT THEIR PEAK NOW AND SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS FIRST
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER TO THE EAST SIDE THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY
FALLING APART AS IT DOES SO. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND KEEP SOME MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL
GET A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH AROUND 18Z (10 AM PST) BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONT OFFSHORE MOVES IN. WINDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OVER
THE EAST SIDE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE SUMMER
LAKE AREA, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT OFF THE PACNW
COAST AND GLM DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHTNING WITHIN THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BAND TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN ONSHORE AFTER 10 AM, PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. THIS IS A PRETTY
SHARP FRONT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME DECENT CAPE ALONG
WITH SOME PRETTY COLD AIR ALOFT (-30 TO -35C AT 500MB) DIRECTLY
BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND ALSO FAIRLY FAR INLAND
(PROBABLY TO AROUND I-5 FROM ROSEBURG TO GRANTS PASS). INSTABILITY
PETERS OUT AROUND MEDFORD WHERE THUNDER PROBS ARE GENERALLY 10%
OR LESS. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE A 1-2 HOUR
BURST OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND THIS COULD DROP SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO PERHAPS THE MAIN PASSES NORTH/WEST OF GRANTS PASS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
JOSEPHINE AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES (STARTING AT 21Z OR 1 PM
PST) TO COVER THIS RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY, BUT POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IMPACT EVENT. WE THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE AREAS WILL BE AFTER DARK. THE ADVISORY IS
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1400 FEET, WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE MAIN
PASSES LIKE HAYES HILL, SEXTON SUMMIT, CANYON MT. AND CAMAS MT.
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO AROUND 2000 FEET THIS EVENING FOR
MOST OTHER AREAS, THEN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
WET SNOW COULD MIX IN DOWN TO THE ROGUE VALLEY FLOORS
(MEDFORD/GRANTS PASS), BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
EAST MEDFORD, JACKSONVILLE AND ASHLAND STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT A
SMALL ACCUMULATION AROUND THE VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
CASCADES WILL PEAK IN THE 1-2"/HR RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM PST.
THIS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THIS EVENING'S
COMMUTE AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY RUN A LITTLE LONG,
BUT WE'LL MAINTAIN THE 18Z END TIME TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COME UP
DURING THE MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW SECTIONS.
FINALLY, HEIGHTS RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME COLD NIGHTS HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT MOSTLY KEEP THE PRECIP OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW, POPS ARE LOW, GENERALLY IN THE
20-30% RANGE ALONG THE COAST THEN, BUT DRY INLAND. -SPILDE
AVIATION...07/12Z TAFS
ONE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING, WHILE ANOTHER WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS
RANGING FROM VFR TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURATION, BUT ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE MOST
LIKELY AT NORTH BEND AND ROSEBURG AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES IN
19-22Z. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF STEADIER
PRECIP (-RA/-SN), BUT ALSO IN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONTS. FREEZING
LEVELS IN THE 3000-4000 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 1500-2000 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PRECIP
TYPE FOR ALL BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST SIDE BECOMES
-SN. ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE AT KLAMATH FALLS, BUT WE THINK ANY SNOW WOULD BE
LESS THAN 1 INCH.
-SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7, 2026
A SHARP
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL BUILD VERY STEEP SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
DANGEROUS BAR AND SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY, BUT MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
-SPILDE/BPN
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF
UPDATED 300 AM PST WEDNESDAY, JANUARY
7, 2026...LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. INITIALLY, THE SWELL ARRIVING POSES A RISK FOR SNEAKER
WAVES THIS MORNING, THEN, AS THE SWELL BUILDS TO 15-20 FEET, HIGH
SURF RISK INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH BREAKING
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 22 TO 26 FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT. PLEASE STAY OFF JETTIES AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF ZONE
AS BEACHES WILL BE DANGEROUS DUE TO THESE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.
-SPILDE/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-029-030.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR ORZ025-027-028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ORZ031.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
MAS/MAS/MAS
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