538
FXUS66 KMFR 081143
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
343 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
KEY POINTS:
* SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON THIS MORNING
- AS LOW AS 1700 FT THIS MORNING
- NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IMPACTS AT LOWER LEVELS
- LONGER COMMUTES ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS
- PLAN FOR SLIPPERY ROADS, ESPECIALLY AREAS BELOW FREEZING
* THE FORECAST TURNS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
- MIDDLE PARTS OF JANUARY EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET
- BIGGEST CONCERNS COULD BE VALLEY FOG AND AIR STAGNATION
FURTHER DETAILS:
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. WITHIN THE
FLOW, WE HAVE PVA AND MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES BY LATE THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME,
LOWER ELEVATION SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
AT 1700 FEET POSSIBLY SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS WILL BE THE
LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE LOW, WE WILL NEED PRECIPITATION TO ACTUALLY OCCUR TO GET SNOW AT
THESE LEVELS. THE MOSTLY ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT ALLOW
FOR THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION (IF ANY) AND MAY
BE HIT OF MISS FOR A LOT OF LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. BY 10AM, WE LOSE
A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY ALOFT NEEDED FOR PRECIPITATION, SO NOT
EXPECTING TO EXTEND THE CURRENT SET OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS THROUGH
THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL HAVE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TRAVEL THIS MORNING. ONE AREA AROUND HIGHWAY 138 NEAR CRATER LAKE
BETWEEN DIAMOND LAKE AND HIGHWAY 97, AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY
140 NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES
AROUND 0.5"/HR BETWEEN NOW (AS OF WRITING THIS) AND THROUGH ABOUT
9AM. THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE SNOWFALL RATES IS ONLY ABOUT 20%-40%,
BUT WORTH NOTING GIVEN THE IMPLICATIONS ON COMMUTES THROUGH THESE
AREAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH--IF ANYTHING--ON RADAR PAST 10AM THIS
MORNING; HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE
COAST.
AFTER TODAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 500MB WILL SET IN OVER THE
REGION, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDLE PARTS OF THE MONTH. WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION, THE
MAIN CONCERN GOING FORWARD WILL BE LOW LEVEL SATURATION RESULTING IN
VALLEY FOG/FREEZING FOG AND POSSIBLY A STAGNANT AIRMASS FOR WESTSIDE
VALLEYS. WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK CONCERNING BEYOND TODAY WITH
TYPICAL DIURNAL LIGHT WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE
COULD SEE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
BUT BY FAR AND LARGE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AFTER TODAY AND LIKELY
THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERAL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION
TODAY, AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION MAY
LEAD TO FOG AND POSSIBLY FREEZING FOG TONIGHT FOR WESTSIDE AREAS
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE BOTH KRBG AND KMFR. FOG MAY BECOME A COMMON
TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE STICKS AROUND.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
CYCLE.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST THURSDAY, JANUARY 8, 2026
LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL BUILD VERY STEEP SEAS TODAY WITH DANGEROUS BAR AND
SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY, BUT MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALLER CRAFTS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023-
024-026-029-030.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ025-027-
028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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