921
FXUS66 KMFR 091129
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 AM PST FRI JAN 9 2026
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS
- CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH DRY WEATHER
- MORNING FOG/FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES IN PLACE
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LATE NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DETAILS:
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE DATA THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER (WITH ONE
CAVEAT) THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THAT CAVEAT BEING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY, BUT QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE MUCH BETTER NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT MAY END UP BEING FOG AND FREEZING FOG THE NEXT
SEVERAL MORNINGS ALONG WITH AN AIRMASS THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE
CHANGE. THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS RESULTED IN AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORIES. FREEZING FOG IS DEVELOPING AS OF WRITING THIS IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY (AND OTHER AREAS) AS TEMPERATURES HOVER BELOW
FREEZING. VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN SEVERAL AREAS.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE THREAT OF VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS WHICH
COULD IMPACT COMMUTE TIMES AND BRING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING DUE TO SUSPENDED DROPLETS AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL BE THE TREND GOING FORWARD
AND THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WHICH WILL GO HAND IN HAND WITH THE
AIR STAGNATION AS THE AIRMASS GOES UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
SOME OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. RECORDS THURS/FRI ARE GENERALLY
AROUND THE LOWER 60S. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES LATE NEXT
WEEK AND MAY SEE SOME RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. THE EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES VALUES
APPROACHING HIGHER END OF THE SPECTRUM RELATIVE TO THE REFORECAST
ANALYSIS. CURRENTLY, THE NBM HAS HIGHS FALLING JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS TRENDS MAY INDICATE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL IMPACT KRBG AND KMFR. KLMT COULD
POSSIBLY GET IN THE MIX AS WELL LATER THIS MORNING, BUT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PREVENTING KLMT FROM REACHING THESE LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (90%) FOR KRBG AND KMFR
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE
BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUD LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY, BUT THIS
IS SOMETHING THAT WILL REQUIRE MONITORING WITH SUBSEQUENT
AMENDMENTS TO THIS FORECAST POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY REPEAT
TOMORROW MORNING FOR BOTH KRBG AND KMFR WITH THE RETURN OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 2026
LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER TODAY. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND, MAINLY FOR OUTER WATERS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO STEEP SEAS.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ021-023-024-
026-028>030.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-029>031.
CA...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ080-081-
083>085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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