034
FXUS66 KMFR 092253
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PST FRI JAN 9 2026
DISCUSSION
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUD MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS A RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE
40'S AND MOST AREAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 40'S THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND
FREEZING FOG IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS DID COME UP A BIT AS WE
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. SO WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS,
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THEY VALLEYS IN
JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE. AS FOR KLAMATH COUNTY, THE AIR IS LIKELY
TOO DRY THERE. KLAMATH FALLS IS CURRENTLY SITTING AT A 24 DEWPOINT
AND THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE DOES BUILD A BIT TONIGHT AND THERE WAS
SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE,
IT COULD HAPPEN AND IMPACT KLAMATH FALLS LATER TONIGHT, WE JUST
DIDN'T ISSUE THE ADVISORY THERE. SAME GOES WITH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS THERE WAS FOG OR LOW CLOUDS NEAR FORT JONES, BUT
THAT IS A FAIRLY ISOLATED AREA IN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
THE AIR WILL REMAIN STAGNANT HEADING INTO SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. THE 00Z SOUNDING TODAY SHOULD GIVE SOME HINTS AT HOW
MUCH WE'RE MIXING, BUT HRRR FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY
A FEW HUNDRED FEET ON SATURDAY. THE FORECAST CHANGES SLIGHTLY BY
SUNDAY WITH A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND STATIONARY FRONT
IMPACTING LOCATIONS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS A 10 TO 15% CHANCE
OF RAIN JUST SOUTH OF FLORENCE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT THAT IS IT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AS A UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS SHOWING ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK.
EFI(EXTREME FORECAST INDEX) VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE AROUND 0.8 TO 0.9 OVER SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THAT DENOTES HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WARMER THAT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK
SOME RECORDS. RIGHT NOW, WE'RE FORECASTING SOME RECORDS TO FALL ON
WEDNESDAY THE 14TH AND THURSDAY THE 15TH.
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, THEY
DENOTE A PRETTY STRONG THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE OREGON
COASTLINE WITH A MODEST EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
EASTERLY FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60'S AND PERHAPS THE LOWER 70'S ALONG
SECTIONS OF THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS, WHICH IS NOTABLE FOR
MID JANUARY. AS FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND MEDFORD, THE QUESTION IS
ALWAYS FOG AND HOW IT COULD INHIBIT OUR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE.
RIGHT NOW OUR FORECAST LIES BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE ON THE NBM.
IF WE MISS OUT OF THE FOG, WE'LL LIKELY SEE LOWER 60'S COMPARED TO
THE MID 50'S IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, MINOR IMPACT WEATHER, YET A LOT OF INTERESTING THINGS
GOING ON NEXT WEEK. NOT GREAT NEWS FOR OUR LIMITED SNOW PACK ON
THE OTHER HAND.
-SMITH
AVIATION...09/18Z TAFS
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19-20Z, WITH THE ROGUE AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS LIKELY TAKING THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE AND MAYBE NOT
UNTIL 20-21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS, EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH THE NIGHTLY RETURN
OF FOG/FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEYS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AND THESE GUSTY WINDS (15 TO 25
KTS) ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY (TALENT/PHOENIX/ASHLAND) WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD MAKE FOR SOME BUMPY APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 115 PM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 2026
GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SEAS. STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS FRONT STALLS AND NEVER REALLY PUSHES
INTO THE AREA WATERS, BUT SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WHILE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP
FOR MOST AREAS FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER, LONGER
PERIOD SWELL (PEAKING AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AT 15 TO 17 SECONDS) MOVES
INTO THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT, BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 10 FT ON TUESDAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THE WATERS. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEEP, POSSIBLY VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS. /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026-029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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