948
FXUS66 KMFR 101112
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
312 AM PST SAT JAN 10 2026
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS
- CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH DRY WEATHER
- MORNING FOG/FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES IN PLACE
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LATE NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DETAILS:
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN THE SAME. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE DATA THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE FOG AND FREEZING FOG THE NEXT SEVERAL
MORNINGS ALONG WITH A STABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.
THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORIES. FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ROGUE AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS. VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE BUT
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITIES ARE ONGOING AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASS. A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT OF VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL BE THE TREND GOING FORWARD AND THE
MAIN WEATHER IMPACT, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH AIR STAGNATION AS THE
AIRMASS GOES UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SOME OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD VALUES. RECORDS THURS/FRI ARE GENERALLY AROUND THE LOWER 60S.
WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK AND MAY SEE SOME
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FROM THE EUROPEAN
MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE HIGHER
END OF THE SPECTRUM RELATIVE TO THE REFORECAST ANALYSIS. CURRENTLY,
THE NBM HAS HIGHS FALLING JUST SHORT OF RECORDS, BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS TRENDS ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASING (1-2 DEGREES)
FOR HIGHS LATE NEXT WEEK.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR SOME
WESTSIDE AREAS--PRIMARILY IMPACTING KMFR. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH CLOUDS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WHICH MAY
IMPACT KMFR AND POSSIBLY KRBG. OTHERWISE, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE TERMINALS.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2026
SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS
FRONT STALLS AND NEVER REALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WATERS, BUT
SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST SWELL
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WHILE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS FROM GOLD
BEACH NORTHWARD AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER, LONGER PERIOD SWELL (PEAKING
AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AT 15 TO 17 SECONDS) MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT, BUT
GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 10 FT ON TUESDAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THE WATERS. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEEP, POSSIBLY VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026-029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-
026.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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