106
FXUS66 KMFR 101753
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
953 AM PST SAT JAN 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND ADDED BEACH HAZARDS DISCUSSION
AVIATION...10/18Z TAFS
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19-20Z. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS, EXPECT A SIMILAR
PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH THE NIGHTLY RETURN OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS AROUND 06-10Z, AND CLEARING
EXPECTED LATE BY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEYS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS. /BR-Y
BEACH HAZARDS
UPDATED 845 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 10,
2026...A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, RESULTING IN A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES. INITIALLY,
INCOMING SWELL WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 6 FEET AT 18 TO 20 SECONDS
SUNDAY MORNING INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 FT AT 16 TO 17 SECONDS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS HIGHER PERIOD SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SNEAKER WAVE THREAT BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT AREA BEACHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OR LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE DANGERS SNEAKER WAVES POSE TO
BEACH GOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON
BEACHES THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES
CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE
OCEAN. THE WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD
CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. WHILE SNEAKER WAVES CAN
OCCUR AT ANY TIME, THE GREATEST RISK IS ON AN INCOMING TIDE. PLEASE
BE AWARE OF THE TIDES IF VENTURING OUT ONTO THE BEACHES. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 312 AM PST SAT JAN 10 2026/
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS
- CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH DRY WEATHER
- MORNING FOG/FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES IN PLACE
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LATE NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DETAILS:
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN THE SAME. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE DATA THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE FOG AND FREEZING FOG THE NEXT SEVERAL
MORNINGS ALONG WITH A STABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.
THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORIES. FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ROGUE AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS. VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE BUT
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITIES ARE ONGOING AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASS. A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT OF VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL BE THE TREND GOING FORWARD AND THE
MAIN WEATHER IMPACT, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH AIR STAGNATION AS THE
AIRMASS GOES UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SOME OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD VALUES. RECORDS THURS/FRI ARE GENERALLY AROUND THE LOWER 60S.
WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK AND MAY SEE SOME
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FROM THE EUROPEAN
MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE HIGHER
END OF THE SPECTRUM RELATIVE TO THE REFORECAST ANALYSIS. CURRENTLY,
THE NBM HAS HIGHS FALLING JUST SHORT OF RECORDS, BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS TRENDS ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASING (1-2 DEGREES)
FOR HIGHS LATE NEXT WEEK.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2026...SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS
FRONT STALLS AND NEVER REALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WATERS, BUT
SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST SWELL
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WHILE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS FROM
GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. STEEP SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER, LONGER PERIOD SWELL
(PEAKING AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AT 15 TO 17 SECONDS) MOVES INTO THE
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT, BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 10 FT ON TUESDAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THE WATERS. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEEP, POSSIBLY VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026-029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-
026.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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