455
FXUS66 KMFR 110012
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
412 PM PST SAT JAN 10 2026
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION...11/00Z TAFS
VFR IS PRESENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 7 TO
10 DAYS, EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH THE NIGHTLY
RETURN OF FOG/FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS
AROUND 06-10Z, AND CLEARING EXPECTED LATE BY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 19-20Z.
OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEYS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS. /BR-Y/HERMANSEN
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 249 PM PST SAT JAN 10 2026/
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON. MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARDS WASHINGTON AND CANADA IS BRINGING
HIGH CLOUDS, BUT OTHERWISE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEAR- AND LONG-TERM FORECASTS.
THIS WILL KEEP TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN PLACE. FIRST, FOG AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING FOG MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE ROGUE VALLEY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MORNING HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED PERSISTING CONDITIONS, A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
ROGUE, APPLEGATE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE
RETURN OF FREEZING FOG IN THESE AREAS. AS THE WEEK GOES ON, STEADY
DRYING MAY HELP TO REDUCE THE DENSITY AND DURATION OF VALLEY FOG.
ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RISE FROM THE HIGH 20S
EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE LOW 30S
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. EVEN THESE FEW DEGREES IN CHANGE MAY HELP
TO EASE THE THREAT OF FREEZING FOG.
THE CONDITIONS FOR AIR STAGNATION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING WILL ALLOW
PARTICULATES TO BUILD IN LOW-LYING AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY, BUT LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN EARLY IN THE WEEK. AIR QUALITY CONCERNS MAY RETURN
UNDER HIGHER PRESSURE.
WHILE STABILITY PERSIST THROUGH THE OFFICIAL SEVEN DAY FORECAST,
ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS FOR BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
ORGANIZED SIGNALS FOR ACTIVITY IN THE 10 TO 14 DAY RANGE. OF COURSE,
DETAILS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY COARSE AND DO NOT SUPPORT ANY ATTEMPTS AT
A FULL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2026...SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS
FRONT STALLS AND NEVER REALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WATERS, BUT
SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES
INTO THE WATERS. WHILE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FROM GOLD BEACH
NORTHWARD AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP SEAS
EXPAND TO ALL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER, LONGER PERIOD SWELL
(PEAKING AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AT 15 TO 17 SECONDS) MOVES INTO THE
WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS SEAS LOWER TO BELOW 10 FT BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL (LOWER THAN THE FIRST) BUILDS
INTO THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SO SEAS WILL REMAIN
SWELL DOMINATED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN UNDER A THERMAL TROUGH THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES INTO THURSDAY, BUT SEAS
TRANSITION TO WIND WAVE DOMINATED UNDER GUSTY NORTH WINDS. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEEP TO VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 1245 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2026...A
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
RESULTING IN A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES. INITIALLY, INCOMING
SWELL WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 6 FEET AT 18 TO 20 SECONDS SUNDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 FT AT 16 TO 17 SECONDS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
HIGHER PERIOD SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SNEAKER WAVE THREAT BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT AREA BEACHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OR LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE DANGERS SNEAKER WAVES POSE TO
BEACH GOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON
BEACHES THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES
CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE
OCEAN. THE WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD
CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. WHILE SNEAKER WAVES CAN
OCCUR AT ANY TIME, THE GREATEST RISK IS ON AN INCOMING TIDE. PLEASE
BE AWARE OF THE TIDES IF VENTURING OUT ONTO THE BEACHES. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026-029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-
026.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4
AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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