882
FXUS66 KMFR 111124
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PST SUN JAN 11 2026
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK
- LEADING TO DRY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS
- MORNING FOG/FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES EXTEND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DETAILS:
NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN THE
SAME. THERE IS STILL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC DATA THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE FOG AND FREEZING FOG THE NEXT SEVERAL
MORNINGS ALONG WITH A STABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.
THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORIES WHICH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PER
SATELLITE, FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, ALBEIT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING. VISIBILITY RANGES FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE. A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT OF LIMITED VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. FOG AND
FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND GOING FORWARD AND THE
MAIN WEATHER IMPACT, ESPECIALLY WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH AIR STAGNATION AS THE AIRMASS GOES UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SOME OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD VALUES LATER THIS NEXT WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONE
TO FRUITION. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE HIGHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM RELATIVE TO THE REFORECAST ANALYSIS.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
ANOTHER MORNING OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED, IMPACTING
MAINLY KMFR THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THINGS TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FOG
RETURNING FOR SOME WESTSIDE VALLEYS, IMPACTING MAINLY KMFR AND
KRBG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THIS
CYCLE FOR INLAND TERMINALS, BUT KOTH WILL EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
DOMINATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2026
BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS CONTINUE AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST SWELL
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. AS A RESULT, STEEP SEAS FOR MOST AREAS
FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP
SEAS EXPAND TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER, LONGER PERIOD
SWELL (PEAKING AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AT 15 TO 17 SECONDS) MOVES INTO
THE WATERS LATE TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS SEAS LOWER TO BELOW 10 FT BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL (LOWER THAN THE FIRST) BUILDS
INTO THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SO SEAS WILL REMAIN
SWELL DOMINATED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN UNDER A THERMAL TROUGH THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THURSDAY, BUT SEAS TRANSITION
TO WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS UNDER GUSTY NORTH WINDS. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STEEP TO VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-
029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-
026.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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