355
FXUS66 KMFR 111731
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
931 AM PST SUN JAN 11 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND ADDED BEACH HAZARDS DISCUSSION
AVIATION...11/18Z TAFS
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/FREEZING FOG ARE
IMPACTING MANY INLAND TERMINALS THIS MORNING, INCLUDING ROSEBURG,
MEDFORD AND KLAMATH FALLS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY
19-20Z, WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS LINGERING LONGEST IN THE
ROGUE/ILLINOIS VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING UNTIL 21Z. WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL RETURN ALL WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN, AND LIKELY
INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN AS WELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEYS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH THE
REGION. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE FOR
SOME FOG FROM THE COQUILLE BASIN TO DRIFT INTO COOS BAY AND BRIEFLY
IMPACT NORTH BEND FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. /BR-Y
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 800 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2026
A
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
RESULTING IN A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES. INITIALLY, INCOMING
SWELL WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 6 FEET AT 18 TO 20 SECONDS SUNDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 FT AT 16 TO 17 SECONDS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
HIGHER PERIOD SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SNEAKER WAVE THREAT BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT AREA BEACHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OR LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE DANGERS SNEAKER WAVES POSE TO
BEACH GOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON
BEACHES THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES
CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE
OCEAN. THE WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD
CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. WHILE SNEAKER WAVES CAN
OCCUR AT ANY TIME, THE GREATEST RISK IS ON AN INCOMING TIDE. PLEASE
BE AWARE OF THE TIDES IF VENTURING OUT ONTO THE BEACHES. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 324 AM PST SUN JAN 11 2026/
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK
- LEADING TO DRY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS
- MORNING FOG/FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES EXTEND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DETAILS:
NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN THE
SAME. THERE IS STILL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC DATA THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE FOG AND FREEZING FOG THE NEXT SEVERAL
MORNINGS ALONG WITH A STABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE.
THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORIES WHICH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PER
SATELLITE, FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, ALBEIT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING. VISIBILITY RANGES FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE. A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT OF LIMITED VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. FOG AND
FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND GOING FORWARD AND THE
MAIN WEATHER IMPACT, ESPECIALLY WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH AIR STAGNATION AS THE AIRMASS GOES UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SOME OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD VALUES LATER THIS NEXT WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONE
TO FRUITION. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE HIGHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM RELATIVE TO THE REFORECAST ANALYSIS.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2026...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS CONTINUE AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST SWELL
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. AS A RESULT, STEEP SEAS FOR MOST AREAS
FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STEEP SEAS EXPAND TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER, LONGER
PERIOD SWELL (PEAKING AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AT 15 TO 17 SECONDS)
MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATE TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS SEAS LOWER TO BELOW 10 FT BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL (LOWER THAN THE FIRST) BUILDS
INTO THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SO SEAS WILL REMAIN
SWELL DOMINATED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN UNDER A THERMAL TROUGH THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THURSDAY, BUT SEAS TRANSITION
TO WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS UNDER GUSTY NORTH WINDS. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STEEP TO VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-
029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-
026.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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