388
FXUS66 KMFR 120513
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 PM PST SUN JAN 11 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...12/06Z TAFS
VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR MANY AREA VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE KLAMATH BASIN. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE GRANTS
PASS AREA, ILLINOIS VALLEY, AREAS NORTH OF MEDFORD AND SCOTT VALLEY.
FOG MAY BE DENSE, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING. AT MEDFORD,
EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-09Z THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING, LIFTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILARLY,
EXPECT LIFR IN FOG TO DEVELOP AT ROSEBURG AROUND 09-10Z THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT KLAMATH FALLS WILL SEE
LIFR AGAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME FOG FROM THE
COQUILLE BASIN IS FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO COOS BAY AND BRIEFLY IMPACT
NORTH BEND FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AROUND 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 222 PM PST SUN JAN 11 2026/
DISCUSSION...A STABLE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE GUIDING INFLUENCE IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN ABOUT MIDWEEK, WITH NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE GIVING
MEDFORD A 60% CHANCE TO SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE 60 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
THIS STABILITY SUPPORTS AIR QUALITY CONCERNS CONTINUING FOR LOW-
LYING AREAS IN THROUGH AT LAST FRIDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK
TO DESCRIBE THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING FOG IN THE FORECAST
FOR SOME LOW-LYING AREAS. NORTH BEND BRIEFLY SAW FOG ON EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT FORECAST OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE CONDITIONS IN
THE WEEK AHEAD. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING START THE WEEK.
MIDWEEK WARMING MAY BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE ROGUE, APPLEGATE,
AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS UP ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE UMPQUA
VALLEY REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND OUT OF A FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER
KLAMATH LAKE BROUGHT FOG INTO AREAS AROUND KLAMATH FALLS THIS
MORNING. WITH THAT PATTERN STAYING IN THE FORECAST, THESE AREAS HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES MAY EASE SLIGHTLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS DETERMINISTIC
IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGE DEVELOPING A NEGATIVE TILT THAT WOULD
DECREASE PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. BEYOND THAT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS KEEP A ~60% CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
SOME TIME IN THE 10-12 DAY RANGE. LONG-TERM MODELS OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN FALL SHORT OF SHOWING ANY ACTIVITY, SO DETAILS ABOUT THOSE
POSSIBILITIES REMAIN VAGUE. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PST SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2026...STEEP SEAS
WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN EXPAND TO ALL AREAS DUE TO AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD
SWELL BUILDING INTO THE WATERS TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY, GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS SEAS LOWER TO BELOW 10 FT BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL (PEAKING AROUND 10 FT AT
15 SECONDS) BUILDS INTO THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SO
SEAS WILL REMAIN SWELL DOMINATED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN UNDER A THERMAL TROUGH THAT LINGERS THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THURSDAY, BUT
SEAS TRANSITION TO WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS UNDER GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STEEP TO VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. /BR-Y
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 100 PM PST SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2026...LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS TODAY, RESULTING IN A
MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS HIGHER PERIOD SWELL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY
EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SNEAKER WAVE
THREAT BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT AREA BEACHES TODAY INTO MONDAY OR LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE DANGERS SNEAKER WAVES POSE TO
BEACH GOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON
BEACHES THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES
CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE
OCEAN. THE WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD
CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. WHILE SNEAKER WAVES CAN
OCCUR AT ANY TIME, THE GREATEST RISK IS ON AN INCOMING TIDE. PLEASE
BE AWARE OF THE TIDES IF VENTURING OUT ONTO THE BEACHES. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-
029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ024-
026-029.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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