506
FXUS66 KMFR 122353
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 PM PST MON JAN 12 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...13/00Z TAFS
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR WITH LINGERING
FOG AND IFR IN GRANTS PASS AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY IN JOSEPHINE
COUNTY. VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT AREA TERMINALS.
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND BETWEEN 10-13Z IN THE KLAMATH BASIN. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY
LIFT AND CLEAR. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER LONGEST IN THE
ROGUE/ILLINOIS VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING UNTIL 21-22Z.
OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEYS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH THE
REGION. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR, EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG FROM
THE COQUILLE BASIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO COOS BAY AND
BRIEFLY IMPACT NORTH BEND FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 256 PM PST MON JAN 12 2026/
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AND WESTERN UNITED STATES, KEEPING STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
WITH POOR MIXING IN THE FORECAST, DECREASED AIR QUALITY IS EXPECTED
IN LOW-LYING AREAS. AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION
PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS, JOSEPHINE, JACKSON, KLAMATH, AND LAKE COUNTIES
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS,
TODAY'S FOG LAYER LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. WHILE THIS MAY IMPACT THE CHANCES OF OVERALL
FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS THE DENSITY AND DURATION OF FOG IF IT
DEVELOPS, THE STABILITY OF THE CURRENT AIR MASS SUGGESTS THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THERE AREA FOR FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT. A
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, AND ROGUE
VALLEYS IS IN PLACE TO COMMUNICATE POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THESE AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE UMPQUA
VALLEY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE FOG RETURN, WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING FOG. A PATTERN OF
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE UPPER KLAMATH LAKE REMAINS, MAKING FOG A
POSSIBILITY FOR KLAMATH FALLS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL. FOR
THAT AREA, THE SHORTER DURATION OF TODAY'S FOG SUGGESTS THAT A FULL
ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THAT AREA. EVEN FOR AREAS WITHOUT AN
ADVISORY PRODUCT, EXTRA CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN TRAVELING THROUGH
FOGGY AREAS.
THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD, BRINGING WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. FOR MEDFORD,
NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A 65-75% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 60
DEGREES OR HIGHS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY. OF COURSE, THIS
ASSUMES THE OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT PATTERN CHANGES. SIMILAR ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OF MID 50S TO LOW 60S IS EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, WITH COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE MID 60S.
THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
PATTERN IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO THE PATTERN NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS STILL HAVE A GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR ACTIVITY IN
DAYS 7-10, BUT LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE PANELS SHOWS EVERYTHING FROM
LIGHT SHOWERS TO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS TO NOTHING. WHILE THERE'S LITTLE
TO SUPPORT A HIGHLY CONFIDENT FORECAST, THE FACT THAT LONG-TERM
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE NOT DECREASED IS MEANINGFUL. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2026...STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
REMAINING NEAR OR AT A PEAK INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOME NORTHERLY TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH SEAS LOWERING TO BELOW 10 FT
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND REACHING A MINIMUM AT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT ON
TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL (PEAKING AROUND 10 TO 12
FT AT 15 SECONDS) BUILDS INTO THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY, SO SEAS
WILL REMAIN SWELL DOMINATED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN UNDER A THERMAL TROUGH THAT LINGERS THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT SEAS TRANSITION TO WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS UNDER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BR-Y
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 130 PM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2026...LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY, MAINTAINING A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS A LOW RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES ON ANY GIVEN DAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SNEAKER WAVES HAS LOWERED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INTERFERENCE FROM OTHER WAVE TRAINS.
IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT AREA BEACHES, PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE DANGERS
SNEAKER WAVES POSE TO BEACH GOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON BEACHES THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS
AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET
AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE OCEAN. THE WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER
OBJECTS WHICH COULD CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. WHILE
SNEAKER WAVES CAN OCCUR AT ANY TIME, THE GREATEST RISK IS ON AN
INCOMING TIDE. PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE TIDES IF VENTURING OUT ONTO
THE BEACHES. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ024-
026.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-
022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-
029>031.
CA...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page