938
FXUS66 KMFR 271102
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
DISCUSSION
UPPER RIDGING WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY AND THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN OFFSHORE PACIFIC FRONT
TO APPROACH THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE WATERS, ALONG THE COAST AND IN PORTIONS
OF THE SHASTA VALLEY, BUT ALSO PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE EAST SIDE. GALE WARNINGS ARE UP OVER THE WATERS (SEE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW). WE DON'T THINK WIND GUSTS WILL QUITE GET TO
WARNING LEVELS (>=58 MPH) ALONG THE COAST, BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS
COULD SEE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. SINCE THE FLOW WILL
BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH THE ROGUE VALLEY, WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE AIRPORT. BUT,
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH END CLOSER TO
ASHLAND, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS ARE
ALREADY BLOWING AT WEED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY (35 MPH AT THIS EARLY
HOUR) AND THESE SHOULD PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. EAST SIDE AREAS WILL GET BREEZY TOO, BUT WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.
AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE, THE UPPER SUPPORT BECOMES DISORGANIZED
AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FIZZLE AS IT HEADS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM
0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY AN INCH OR SO IN THE CURRY COAST
RANGES. ASIDE FROM THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE SE WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN WEST SIDE VALLEY PRECIP AMOUNTS. MOST
PLACES END UP WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH. SOME OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS PRECIP COMPLETELY SKIPPING OVER MEDFORD.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES HERE REMAIN IN THE 60-70% RANGE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE BETWEEN ABOUT 4 PM AND 8 OR 9 PM. MODELS HAVE BEEFED UP
QPF AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT FOR EAST SIDE AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAYS 31
AND 395 THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
KLAMATH FALLS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH (HIGHWAY 97) AND SOUTH (MEDICINE LAKE AREA). WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING ADVISORY SNOW, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKY SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS NORTH OF CHILOQUIN TONIGHT, SO BE AWARE OF THAT
POTENTIAL. SNOW LEVELS OF 4500-5000 FT COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO
TO THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS, BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE DOWN AS LOW AS
I-5 AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT.
BEYOND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE, BUT THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE STORM TRACK IS FOR THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN FAVORS THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND WOULD BE
LEAST FAVORABLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH OF THE
OR/CA BORDER LEAST FAVORED. THIS TREND ONLY SHARPENS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK GETS DIRECTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
PORTLAND/SEATTLE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES INTO IDAHO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING GLANCING BLOWS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
DURING THIS TIME. SO WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE,
THERE STILL AREN'T ANY CLEAR SIGNALS SHOWING A SOLID RETURN TO
WETTER CONDITIONS OR BUILDING SNOWPACK IN THE REGION. IN FACT,
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER UPPER
RIDGING TO ARRIVE AFTER SUN/MON OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING
ANOTHER SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF DRY, MILD WEATHER DURING THE 1ST
WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION...27/12Z TAFS
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER HIGH
CEILINGS WITH LIGHT WINDS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, FOG
TO FORM THIS MORNING.
A FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING, BRINGING SOME RAIN AND BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. RAINFALL WILL BE MORE PREVALENT WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TO THE EAST DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS OF 4500-5000 FEET WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL
LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN FROM THIS FRONT MAY LOCALLY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, AS WELL
AS OBSCURE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE SHASTA VALLEY MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH, WITH 25-40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER TERRAIN, BUT THIS HAZARD SHOULD LESSEN AS
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THERE'S ONLY ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE
OF PRECIP TONIGHT AT KLAMATH FALLS, BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR, IT COULD
BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 27, 2026
A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY WITH GALE FORCE SOUTH WINDS
AND VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS PEAKING AT 10-16 FT AT 9 SECONDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT.
CONDITIONS REACH A PEAK THIS EVENING. BUT, ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS LONG PERIOD
WEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13 TO 17 FT AT 15
SECONDS.
SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY STRENGTH
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH SEAS REMAINING STEEP. THE OUTLOOK FOR
THE WEEKEND IS FOR SOUTH WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SEAS BECOMING
DOMINATED BY ANOTHER STEEP, BUILDING WEST SWELL.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ORZ026.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ350-356.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.
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