646
FXUS66 KMFR 272241
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
241 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK
* GUSTY WINDS TODAY FOR ROGUE/SHASTA VALLEYS
- WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SHASTA VALLEY
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY
- OVERALL, TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE LOW FOR MANY AREAS
- COASTAL AREAS UPWARDS AROUND AN 1.00"-1.50" FOR TOTALS
- INTERIOR RIDGES AND MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO 0.50"-0.75" TOTALS
* LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500FT
- WILL NOT WARRANT ANY HAZARDS THIS WEEK
FURTHER DETAILS:
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
SHASTA VALLEY THROUGH 7PM, BUT WE CANCELED THE ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. THE ROGUE VALLEY ADVISORY WAS
BORDERLINE AND HASN'T BEEN REACHING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON SO
DECIDED TO CANCEL IT.
MUCH OF THE WESTSIDE HAS A LOW PROBABILITY (10%-40%) OF REACHING
0.10" IN ANY 6HR TIMEFRAME THIS WEEK WITH MUCH OF THESE "BETTER
CHANCES" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COAST AND AREAS NEAR THE COAST
(INCLUDING WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY) HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT
50%-90% FOR 0.10"/6HRS. AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST IN CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR
1.00"-1.50". MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
PROBABILITIES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY, BUT LIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT
THIS PRECIPITATION AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK IS NOT
GOING TO PRODUCE ANY HAZARDS AND WILL LIKELY BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF 500MB CONTINUES TO INDICATE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
BE FAVORED THROUGH DAY9 OVER THE PACNW. GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (AS OF TODAY) CONTINUES TO INDICATE IN THEIR 8-14
DAY OUTLOOK A VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
ADDITION TO A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS
COMPLETELY ALIGNS WITH THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS, AND MAY BE A TELLING
SIGN FOR EARLY PARTS OF FEBRUARY BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES
AND OVERALL DRY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FORECAST TREND THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS SCENARIO ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
VFR CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC, BRINGING SOME RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHASTA VALLEY MAY SEE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, WITH 25-40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND OVER TERRAIN, BUT THIS HAZARD
SHOULD LESSEN AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL WILL BE MOST PREVALENT WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS OF 4500-5000 FEET WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN. RAIN FROM THIS FRONT MAY LOCALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS OBSCURE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. THERE'S ONLY ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF PRECIP
TONIGHT AT KLAMATH FALLS, BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR, IT COULD BE A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 27, 2026
A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING GALE FORCE SOUTH WINDS AND VERY
STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS PEAKING AT AROUND 10-15 FT AT 10 SECONDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REACH A
PEAK THIS EVENING, THEN GALES EASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH SEAS
REMAINING STEEP TO VERY STEEP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BUILDING
LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS. THIS LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13 TO 17 FT AT 15 SECONDS.
SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY STRENGTH
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH SEAS REMAINING STEEP. THE OUTLOOK FOR
THE WEEKEND IS FOR SOUTH WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SEAS BECOMING
DOMINATED BY ANOTHER STEEP, BUILDING WEST SWELL.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.
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