895
FXUS66 KMFR 281144
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
344 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...28/12Z TAFS
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
IFR/MVFR IN PORTIONS OF MODOC COUNTY, INCLUDING ALTURAS, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. IFR/LOCAL LIFR IS
ALSO IMPACTING MT SHASTA CITY THIS MORNING, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS VARY WIDELY FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST INTO JOSEPHINE/WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES, BUT ALSO
SOME LIFR FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE GRANTS PASS REGION. ALL THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WE'VE HAD MOSTLY VFR HERE IN MEDFORD DURING THE NIGHT, BUT THERE ARE
SOME LOWER CEILINGS FLOATING AROUND OUT THERE. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
IF THESE CAME IN BRIEFLY THIS MORNING. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW, BUT WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG COULD DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS TOO, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING BEFORE
12Z THU IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCES EXIST DURING THE 12-18Z
TIME FRAME.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 302 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026/
DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(SNOW) OVER MODOC COUNTY (WATCH FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS THIS MORNING), WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS STILL IMPACTING
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO JOSEPHINE/WESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES. PRECIP EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD PERSIST (40-60% CHANCE) ACROSS N&W
SECTIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF OFFSHORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT
WILL GRAZE NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES WITH SOME
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THIS TIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OCCASIONALLY
AMPLIFYING INTO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SE SECTIONS LARGELY DRY
WITH COLD MORNINGS AND MILDER AFTERNOONS, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE PREVALENT AND LIKELY LIMIT (OR DIM) SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY.
ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS (MAINLY TONIGHT INTO THU) WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING A STRONGER
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. IT DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH MOST PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST WITH
JUST MINOR AMOUNTS INLAND NEAR AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW
LEVELS ARE HIGH TOO, MOSTLY ABOVE 5500 FEET, SO NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, MODELS AND CLUSTERS ARE NEAR
UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER US FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL (ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS).
CPC WEEK 2 FORECAST (FEB 4-10) ALSO MAINTAINS ODDS FAVORING
DRIER, MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.
AVIATION...28/06Z TAFS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT THEN
BECOME ISOLATED ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. LOCALLY
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA. THERE IS A CHANCE (20-25%) FOR IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, INCLUDING ROSEBURG, EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND MEDFORD AREA, GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES A 10% CHANCE FOR IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS OCCURING,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PST WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 2026...A SERIES
OF OFFSHORE FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE
MARINE WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY STRENGTH ALONG WITH A SERIES OF LARGER
WEST SWELLS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-
356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ370.
MAS/MAS/MAS
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