535
FXUS66 KMFR 281744
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
944 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...28/18Z TAFS
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS COMMON BOTH EAST AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. FOR MOST OF THE AREA, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED
WITH VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL IFR CEILINGS
AND/OR FOG COULD DEVELOP IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING BEFORE 12Z THU IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
BETTER CHANCES EXIST DURING THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 344 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026/
DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(SNOW) OVER MODOC COUNTY (WATCH FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS THIS MORNING), WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS STILL IMPACTING
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO JOSEPHINE/WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
PRECIP EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SOME
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST (40-60% CHANCE) ACROSS N&W SECTIONS INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF OFFSHORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT
WILL GRAZE NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES WITH SOME
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THIS TIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OCCASIONALLY
AMPLIFYING INTO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SE SECTIONS LARGELY DRY
WITH COLD MORNINGS AND MILDER AFTERNOONS, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE PREVALENT AND LIKELY LIMIT (OR DIM) SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY.
ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS (MAINLY TONIGHT INTO THU) WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING A STRONGER
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. IT DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH MOST PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST WITH
JUST MINOR AMOUNTS INLAND NEAR AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW
LEVELS ARE HIGH TOO, MOSTLY ABOVE 5500 FEET, SO NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, MODELS AND CLUSTERS ARE NEAR
UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER US FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL (ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS).
CPC WEEK 2 FORECAST (FEB 4-10) ALSO MAINTAINS ODDS FAVORING
DRIER, MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PST WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 2026...A
SERIES OF OFFSHORE FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY STRENGTH ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
LARGER WEST SWELLS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-
356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ370.
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