418
FXUS66 KMFR 291040
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
240 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
DISCUSSION
LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS CYCLE
WITH MOSTLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WE DID HAVE A BRIEF SHOWER OUT THERE AROUND
MIDNIGHT THAT WET THE GROUND (BUT ALAS, NOTHING MEASURABLE HERE AT
THE OFFICE). TODAY, AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WEST COAST, PUSHING TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES
OF OFFSHORE FRONTS THAT'LL GRAZE NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. IT'LL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES AT THE BEACHES AND COASTAL HEADLANDS. AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST (AND INLAND) WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD
(ASIDE FROM COLD MORNINGS OVER THE EAST SIDE), BUT SUNSHINE WILL
BE DIMMED BY PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY FOR EVERYONE. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/GREAT BASIN, A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACNW LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING OUR BEST CHANCE AT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
BUT MUCH LIKE THE LAST FRONT, THIS ONE WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT
MOVES INLAND. HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE 70-90% ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES,
BUT DIMINISH TO 30-50% FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY (AROUND 60% FOR THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY). EAST OF THE
CASCADES, MOST AREAS HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS OF 10-30% WITH THIS
FRONT. QPF AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST, WITH 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND OVER TO THE CASCADES. ONCE AGAIN, IT COULD SKIP OVER
US (MEDFORD) COMPLETELY. WE'RE NOT SEEING STRONG WINDS WITH THIS
FRONT EITHER. WHILE IT MIGHT BE BREEZY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
OVER THE EAST SIDE SUNDAY, THERE'S JUST NOT ENOUGH WIND TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING THAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED ADVISORY LEVEL.
THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD MONDAY. THAT WILL BEGIN ANOTHER
LONG STRETCH OF DRY, MILD WEATHER THAT WILL LAST MOST, IF NOT ALL,
OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN IF WE WERE TO GET A PACIFIC SYSTEM TO TRY TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK, IT WILL LIKELY
BE MET WITH RESISTANCE, WEAKEN OR JUST FALL APART. CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW ODDS FAVORING BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEEK 2, WHICH
IS THROUGH FEB 11.
AVIATION...29/12Z TAFS
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OUT
THERE THIS MORNING, BUT WITH MOSTLY VFR PREVAILING. SOME WEST
SIDE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
(LOCAL LIFR), BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE COAST, OVER
DOUGLAS COUNTY AND/OR NEAR THE OREGON CASCADES, BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST THURSDAY, JANUARY 29, 2026
A
SERIES OF OFFSHORE FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY STRENGTH, STRONGEST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME STEEP WIND SEAS WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH A SERIES OF LARGER WEST SWELLS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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