720
FXUS66 KMFR 311718
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...31/18Z TAFS
PATCHY LIFR IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND
UPPER ROGUE VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CEILINGS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNINGWITH VIRGA AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2026
A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, EXCEPTING THE AREA WITHIN 15 NM OF SHORE TO THE
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF, WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
AND STEEP WEST SWELL. WINDS INCREASE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH AND STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD TO A PEAK
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY, THEN WEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS
BUILD AND MAY BECOME HIGH AND STEEP AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 538 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2026/
DISCUSSION...
THE LAST FRONT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
RANGE. ACCUMULATION TOTALS MAXED OUT AT 0.02 INCHES NEAR COQUILLE.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
IS AROUND 1-2 DEGREES IN MEDFORD, GRANTS PASS AND ROSEBURG AND THE
VISIBILITY HAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY HERE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. PLUS THE DRY GROUND WON'T HELP HERE
AS IT HASN'T RAINED MUCH OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH DRIER AIR
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DAILY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG STARTING TO BUILD HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY,
SO SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE RAIN FALLING OVER THE REGION. THE COAST
WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN WITH UP TO 0.25 INCHES AROUND BROOKINGS AND
NORTH BEND. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY THE
FARTHER ONE MOVES EAST. MEDFORD MIGHT MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN AND THE
EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN ANY
CASE, THIS IS A LOW IMPACT FRONT WITH SOME WETTING RAIN ALONG THE
COAST.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO TUESDAY. STAGNANT AIR WOULD BE THE
IMPACTFUL WEATHER HERE AS WE COULD STRUGGLE TO MIX TO 1000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL HERE IN THE VALLEY. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUN ANGLE
AND NO FOG COULD HELP PREVENT AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY, BUT WE
STILL HAVE THE LOWER WINTER SUN ANGLES AND WEAK MIXING. PLUS WOOD
BURNING COULD BE ENHANCED WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE'RE STILL
FORECASTING NEAR FREEZING AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE USUALLY WARM. DATA SHOWS EFI
VALUES AROUND 0.7 TO 0.8 BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH
SUGGESTS PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ABOVE THE CLIMATE MEAN AROUND
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'LL APPROACH SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR ALTURAS AND KLAMATH FALLS. ENSEMBLES
ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE 7TH, THEN
THINGS COULD START TO CHANGE AFTER THAT. WE'RE CURRENTLY
FORECASTING A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND 0Z ON THE 8TH.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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