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FXUS66 KMFR 311832
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1032 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2026
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
KEY POINTS:
* WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ANYTIME SOON
* LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- MOST AREAS LESS THAN 0.10"
- COASTAL AREAS AROUND A 0.25"-0.50"
FURTHER DETAILS:
WE REMAIN IN AN OVERALL UNEVENTFUL PATTERN WITH 500MB CLUSTER
ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DOMINATE RIDGING PATTERN. THAT SAID, A
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THIS
IS A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, AND ENSEMBLE DATA DOESN'T SUGGEST ANY
NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL. AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST COULD SEE AROUND
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO UPWARDS NEAR HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. IN
TYPICAL FASHION, CURRY COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHER END OF
THESE AMOUNTS. HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CASCADES, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. ADDITIONALLY, NOT
EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO BE A CONCERN OVERALL ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SIGNAL CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY PARTS OF
FEBRUARY. WHILE THESE BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY NOTEWORTHY EVENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WHILE WE REMAIN IN A LA NINA PATTERN, AND WE
TYPICAL SEE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THESE ENSO PATTERNS, THIS IS
ACTUALLY NOT UNHEARD OF FOR LA NINA YEARS. YES, THESE DRIER YEARS
TEND TO BE OUTLIERS, BUT ITS NOT SOMETHING THAT STATISTICALLY CAN'T
HAPPEN IN LA NINA YEARS. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR DRIER YEARS HAVE
OCCURRED DURING LA NINA YEARS.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION...31/18Z TAFS
PATCHY LIFR IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND
UPPER ROGUE VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CEILINGS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNINGWITH VIRGA AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2026
A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, EXCEPTING THE AREA WITHIN 15 NM OF SHORE TO THE
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF, WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
AND STEEP WEST SWELL. WINDS INCREASE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH AND STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD TO A
PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY, THEN WEST SWELL
DOMINATED SEAS BUILD AND MAY BECOME HIGH AND STEEP AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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