069
FXUS66 KMFR 312223
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
223 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2026
DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
KEY POINTS:
* WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ANYTIME SOON
* LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- COASTAL AREA: AROUND 0.25"-0.50"
- REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST OREGON: LESS THAN 0.10"
- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA: MOSTLY DRY
FURTHER DETAILS:
WE REMAIN IN AN OVERALL UNEVENTFUL PATTERN WITH 500MB CLUSTER
ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DOMINATE RIDGING PATTERN. THAT SAID, A
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER, THIS IS A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, AND ENSEMBLE
DATA DOESN'T SUGGEST ANY NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL. AREAS ALONG AND NEAR
THE COAST COULD SEE AROUND QUARTER OF AN INCH TO UPWARDS NEAR
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. IN TYPICAL FASHION, CURRY COUNTY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHER END OF THESE AMOUNTS. HIGH ELEVATION
SNOWFALL (ABOVE 5500 FEET) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CASCADES,
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. ADDITIONALLY, NOT EXPECTING
WIND SPEEDS TO BE A CONCERN OVERALL ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SIGNAL CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY PARTS OF
FEBRUARY. WHILE THESE BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY NOTEWORTHY EVENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WHILE WE REMAIN IN A LA NINA PATTERN, AND WE
TYPICAL SEE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THESE ENSO PATTERNS, THIS IS
ACTUALLY NOT UNHEARD OF FOR LA NINA YEARS. YES, THESE DRIER YEARS
TEND TO BE OUTLIERS, BUT ITS NOT SOMETHING THAT STATISTICALLY CAN'T
HAPPEN IN LA NINA YEARS. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR DRIER YEARS HAVE
OCCURRED DURING LA NINA YEARS.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION...01/00Z TAFS
VFR CEILINGS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO COOS, DOUGLAS, CURRY, AND WESTERN
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH VIRGA AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2026
A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, EXCEPTING THE AREA WITHIN 15 NM OF SHORE TO THE
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF, WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
AND STEEP WEST SWELL. WINDS INCREASE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH AND STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD TO A PEAK
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY, THEN WEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS
BUILD AND MAY BECOME HIGH AND STEEP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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