793
FXUS66 KMFR 011158
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
358 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTING TO FALL ALONG THE COAST. NO LIGHTNING
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE WATER YET, ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DOES SHOW
SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WE DID LOWER THE QPF A BIT BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. IT SEEM WE WERE OVER FORECASTING PRECIPITATION, SO
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH UP TO 0.1 INCHES
LOOKING LIKE THE HIGHER END OF THINGS THIS MORNING.
WE'LL SEE THIS COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES ON THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS SHOULDN'T CHANGE MUCH AS BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE 50'S.
AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WE'RE
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 60'S
OVER SOME OF THE MID SLOPES LIKE BUTTE FALLS AND PROSPECT. THE
MAIN WEATHER IMPACT COULD BE AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ONLY HAVE MFR
MIXING TO ABOUT 600 FEET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
IS LIKELY TOO LOW. HOWEVER, WE COULD STILL STRUGGLE TO MIX TO 1000
FEET DURING THE DAY WITH A STRONG ENOUGH INVERSION.
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
7TH, THEN THINGS COULD START TO CHANGE AFTER THAT. WE'RE CURRENTLY
FORECASTING A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND 0Z ON THE 8TH WITH THOSE
PROBABILITIES INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL, PRETTY LOW IMPACT WEATHER CONTINUES TO START THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY.
-SMITH
AVIATION...01/12Z TAFS
VFR CEILINGS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE VALLEYS WEST
OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2026
A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
SEAS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH AND STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD TO A PEAK LATER
TONIGHT, BUT PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY, THEN WEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS
BUILD AND MAY BECOME HIGH AND STEEP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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