681
FXUS66 KMFR 012148
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
148 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
KEY POINTS:
* LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
* LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING TODAY
* MONDAY: MORNING FOG FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND SOME EASTSIDE AREAS
* FORECAST TURNS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY - THURSDAY
- RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE FOR ALTURAS AND KLAMATH FALLS
- BROOKINGS MAY APPROACH 70 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
FURTHER DETAILS:
WEAK PVA ALOFT COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. BY FAR AND LARGE, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE FORECAST TURNS
LARGELY DRY THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE MET AT ALTURAS (FEB 4TH/5TH)
AND KLAMATH FALLS (FEB 5TH). RECORDS ARE 65 (FEB 4TH) AND 64 (FEB
5TH) FOR ALTURAS. RECORD IS 59 FOR KLAMATH FALLS. EACH OF THESE DAYS
WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THESE
RECORDS.
A REX BLOCK (HIGH PRESSURE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW)
SETS UP AT 500MB OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE PATTERN STAGNANT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH OF
THIS REX BLOCK WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL HELP AID OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND ENTER THE PACNW. THIS WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.
A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AS THIS LOW COULD
GET PUSHED TO THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY
NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SNOW LEVELS
AND WIND SPEEDS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT
WE HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO ANALYZE THESE DETAILS LEADING UP TO NEXT
WEEKEND. ALL THAT SAID, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE OREGON COAST BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE THE AFTERNOON. VFR LEVELS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WOULD MOST LIKELY
CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING.
-TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2026
A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BUT EASE SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY. WESTERLY
SWELL WILL SUPPORT STEEP SEAS GOING INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF
TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW ADVISORY SEAS IS EXPECTED
UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY KEEP SEAS STEEP INTO THE WND OF THE WEEK.
ACTIVE WEATHER COULD RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
-TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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