509
FNUS76 KMFR 090113
FWSMFR
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR COUNTRY FRZ-110...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
513 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 PST ON FEBRUARY 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GENERAL EAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY, BUT THE BURN
AREA WILL BE SHELTERED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOCAL WINDS MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
THE EAST FLOW WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY, INCREASING CLOUDS.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 1-2 MPH IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-3 MPH IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 1-2 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. UP TO 0.10 INCHES
OF RAIN EXPECTED.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT (AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT SHOULD EAST
WINDS SURFACE).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 1-2 MPH IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING NORTHEAST 2-3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-3 MPH IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING NORTHEAST 4-5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 7 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
FORECASTER...NIEUWENHUIS
REQUESTED BY...PAUL BUCHTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2601856.0/MFR
.DELDT 02/09/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL PAUL.BUCHTER@USDA.GOV,EZEKIEL.JONES@USDA.GOV,RYAN.MUTCHNICK@USDA.GOV,THOMAS.SHICKLE@USDA.GOV
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