190
FXUS66 KMFR 161917
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1117 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 433 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026/ WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH LOOKING TO STAY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES,
ACTIVE WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND WEEKEND. CONDITIONS TODAY DO LOOK TO STAY RELATIVELY
UNIMPACTFUL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIPITATION
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON, BUT NOTHING HAZARDOUS FOR MOST AREAS. A WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY OVER
5000 FEET, WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY AT 3500-4500 FEET THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH APPROACHES, SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO DROP
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. WEST OF THE CASCADES, LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER TERRAIN THROUGH TODAY. THE
CASCADES THEMSELVES AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS IN MODOC COUNTY WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES TODAY, AND LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES LOOK TO SEE FRACTIONS OF AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING A COLD AIR MASS AS WELL AS ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE CASCADES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SNOW
LEVELS WEST OF THE CASCADES LOOK TO LOWER TO 1000-1500 FEET,
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL TO WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS.
FOR THE WEST SIDE, THE MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION (MOUNT SHASTA CITY, DUNSMUIR,
WEED) AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE MORE ACTIVITY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UMPQUA
VALLEY, AREA VALLEYS AND BASINS MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
LINGERING SURFACE WARMING AND MOISTURE WILL HELP TO PREVENT
IMMEDIATE ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS, BUT ROADWAYS MAY BE LOCALLY
SLICK WHERE SLUSH IS PRESENT. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES, WITH 12 TO 24 INCHES FORECAST OVER
TERRAIN IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THERE'S A 75% CHANCE OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF SNOW FOR INTERSTATE 5 FROM MOUNT SHASTA CITY AND
SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS ALONG HIGHWAY 89. THE CASCADES ALSO HAVE A
75% CHANCE FOR 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY,
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR AREAS AT 1500 FEET OR HIGHER
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS WARNING IS MEANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE
OF DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WHILE TRAVELING OVER AREA PASSES. A WINTER
STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION FOR CONTINUING SNOWFALL. ALL
OTHER AREAS HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE STARTING TUESDAY
MORNING.
THE COLD AIR MASS LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY BUT PRECIPITATION BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY AND INTERMITTENT ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST FOR ELEVATED TERRAIN, WHILE VALLEY FLOORS MAY SEE AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. ONE RECENT ADDITION TO THE SUITE OF WINTER
HAZARDS IS A FREEZE WATCH FOR COASTAL AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HOW THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO BEHAVE WILL
HELP TO DETERMINE IF AN UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY IMPACTFUL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SWING OVER THE AREA. SOME QUESTIONS ON TIMING AND SNOW LEVELS IN
THIS TIMEFRAME REMAIN, AND THE PATH OF THE LOW COULD CHANGE THE
EXPECTED IMPACTS AS WELL. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES ON THE
FORECAST AS WINTER WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. -TAD
AVIATION...16/18Z TAFS
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
LOWER MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALONG THE COAST, MVFR CEILINGS MIXED WITH
PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THE TERMINALS
WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MEDFORD(KMFR) USUALLY UNDER PERFORMS UNDER A POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOWER PATTERN WITH WESTERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH A
SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE THINGS TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 1300 FEET, SO IT WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
LOOK FOR IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND PRODUCES SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2026
STEEP SEAS
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH A COMBINATION OF WESTERLY SWELL AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MARINE SHOWERS AND
STRONGER, ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS EASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WESTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
STEEP INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL AREAS OF VERY STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLY IN OUTER WATERS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ023>031.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-082-
083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR CAZ081-084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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