691
FXUS66 KMFR 162233
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
233 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
UPDATE
NOTE: PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
KEY POINTS:
* SNOW: WIDEPSREAD MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS TODAY-THURS NIGHT
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MOUNTAINS/PASSES
- SNOW LEVELS DROPPING EACH DAY
- DOWN TO 500FT - 1000FT TUES & WED MORNINGS
- LIGHT AMOUNTS (TRACE-1.0") FOR VALLEY FLOORS
- HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU, MT SHASTA AREA,
CASCADES, AND KALMIOPSIS WILDERNESS
* RAINFALL: MINOR IMPACTS
- CONTINUES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
- NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING BUT ROADS COULD BE HAZARDOUS
* WIND
- COMBINATION OF WIND & SNOW COULD FURTHER DISRUPT TRAVEL BY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EASTSIDE
- BREEZY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SOME WESTSIDE AREAS
-GUERRERO
AVIATION...16/18Z TAFS
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME LOWER MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALONG THE COAST, MVFR CEILINGS MIXED
WITH PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY
THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME OF THE
TERMINALS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MEDFORD(KMFR) USUALLY UNDER PERFORMS UNDER
A SHOWER PATTERN WITH WESTERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE WILL
ENHANCE THINGS TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 1300
FEET, SO IT WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
LOOK FOR IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND PRODUCES SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2026
STEEP
SEAS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE'LL SEE SEAS MOVE EVEN
HIGHER BY TUESDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACH 16 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS DUE TO AN INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTER SWELL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THIS NORTHWESTERLY SWELL
AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY, A LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AROUND 140W. MODELS ARE BRINGING SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
OUR WATERS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS A THREAT FOR THE REGION.
-SMITH
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1117 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026/
DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 433 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026/ WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH LOOKING TO STAY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES,
ACTIVE WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. CONDITIONS TODAY DO LOOK TO STAY RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL BUT
WORSEN OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON, BUT NOTHING HAZARDOUS FOR MOST AREAS. A WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY OVER
5000 FEET, WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY AT 3500-4500 FEET THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH APPROACHES, SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO DROP
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. WEST OF THE CASCADES, LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER TERRAIN THROUGH TODAY. THE
CASCADES THEMSELVES AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS IN MODOC COUNTY WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES TODAY, AND LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES LOOK TO SEE FRACTIONS OF AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING A COLD AIR MASS AS WELL AS ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE CASCADES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SNOW
LEVELS WEST OF THE CASCADES LOOK TO LOWER TO 500-1000 FEET,
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL TO WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS.
FOR THE WEST SIDE, THE MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION (MOUNT SHASTA CITY, DUNSMUIR,
WEED) AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE MORE ACTIVITY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UMPQUA
VALLEY, AREA VALLEYS AND BASINS MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
LINGERING SURFACE WARMING AND MOISTURE WILL HELP TO PREVENT
IMMEDIATE ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS, BUT ROADWAYS MAY BE LOCALLY
SLICK WHERE SLUSH IS PRESENT. 5 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES, WITH 12 TO 24 INCHES FORECAST OVER
TERRAIN IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY,
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR AREAS AT 1500 FEET OR HIGHER
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS WARNING IS MEANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE
OF DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WHILE TRAVELING OVER AREA PASSES. A WINTER
STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION FOR CONTINUING SNOWFALL. ALL
OTHER AREAS HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE STARTING TUESDAY
MORNING.
THE COLD AIR MASS LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY BUT PRECIPITATION BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY AND INTERMITTENT ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST FOR ELEVATED TERRAIN, WHILE VALLEY FLOORS MAY SEE AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. ONE RECENT ADDITION TO THE SUITE OF WINTER
HAZARDS IS A FREEZE WATCH FOR COASTAL AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HOW THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO BEHAVE WILL
HELP TO DETERMINE IF AN UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY IMPACTFUL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SWING OVER THE AREA. SOME QUESTIONS ON TIMING AND SNOW LEVELS IN
THIS TIMEFRAME REMAIN, AND THE PATH OF THE LOW COULD CHANGE THE
EXPECTED IMPACTS AS WELL. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES ON THE
FORECAST AS WINTER WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ023>031.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-082-
083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR CAZ081-084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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