845
FXUS66 KMFR 172217
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
217 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
COLD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT SW OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. AFTER LAST NIGHT'S AND
TODAY'S MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EVENT, WE'LL BE UNDERNEATH THE CORE
OF THE COLD LOW TONIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH. IN
FACT, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO VERY COLD TEMPS
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET, SLUSHY ROADWAYS TO BECOME
ICY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STORMY WEATHER
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES WITH
RAIN, HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
A DEEP, COLD UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY DOWN
TO AROUND 1000 FEET IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES (WE
OFFICIALLY HAD 0.5 OF AN INCH ON OUR SNOW BOARD HERE AT THE
AIRPORT). 4-8 INCHES FELL ABOVE ~1500 FEET WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AROUND TALENT/ASHLAND AND EVEN A REPORT OF 11.5 INCHES AT
GREENVIEW IN THE SCOTT VALLEY! MOST OF THE SKI RESORTS HAD 6-12
INCHES, INCLUDING MT. ASHLAND. AND, CRATER LAKE NP REPORTED 12.5
INCHES AT ~1030 AM THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST TOTAL I COULD FIND
WAS 16 INCHES AT BIG RED MOUNTAIN SNOTEL, WHICH NOW HAS 33 INCHES
ON THE GROUND. WHILE THIS HAS CAUSED PLENTY OF HEADACHES FOR
MOTORISTS ON THE ROADWAYS, THIS HAS BEEN A MUCH NEEDED CHANGE FROM
MORE THAN A MONTH WITH BARELY ANY SNOW AT ALL. IT HAS HELPED TO
BUILD THE SNOW PACK IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT IS DESPERATELY
NEEDED.
STEADIER SNOW IS STILL FALLING FROM MODOC COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOWEST SNOW
LEVELS OF THE SEASON, LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR INLAND AREAS. IN FACT, SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD DEVELOP AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO
FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH WET/SLUSHY ROADS TURNING ICY
OVERNIGHT. SO, IF DRIVING/WALKING/RIDING ANYWHERE TONIGHT, PLEASE
USE EXTRA CAUTION. LOW TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE WILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING (INCLUDING THE COAST WHERE A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT) WITH TEENS OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF NORCAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZE WARNING ALONG THE COAST, WE HAVE ADDED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE TOO SINCE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
MOST NUMEROUS OVER THERE DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOST ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE RESERVED FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FEET, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS AT SEA LEVEL THAT GET A BRIEF DUSTING WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING. MORE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THAT'S WHY WE'RE MAINTAINING THE WHOLE SUITE OF WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WITH SIMILAR SNOW LEVELS TO LAST NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, THE MAIN
TIMING FOR PRECIP IS DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO THE WEE HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING, SO PAVED SURFACES AND ROADWAYS WILL BE COLDER TO
SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ON THE
VALLEYS FLOORS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ALSO THE LOWER
KLAMATH VALLEY IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. MOUNTAIN AREAS,
INCLUDING THE SHASTA REGION, HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY, THE KALMIOPSIS WILDERNESS AND THE CASCADES ARE ALL LIKELY
TO SEE ANOTHER 8-16 INCHES OF SNOW. ADVISORY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE EAST SIDE WITH 2-6 INCHES (MAYBE 8 OVER WINTER RIM AND
THE WARNERS).
ONE WE GET PAST THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH GETS A KICK INLAND AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THOUGH COLD
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY.
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEAR UNANIMOUS IN
SHOWING STORMY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
IT'S LIKELY TO BE MILDER THAN THIS RECENT STRETCH. ANOTHER DEEP,
CLOSED LOW WILL BREAK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SPINNING
UP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACNW COAST. MULTIPLE WAVES WILL INCREASE
WINDS/RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
STORMINESS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 55-60KT, SO THIS MEANS
MANY AREAS INLAND WILL GET BREEZY TO WINDY, ESPECIALLY THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND ALSO THE EAST SIDE. IT ALSO MEANS WE'LL HAVE SOME WARM
ADVECTION, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER, GENERALLY STARTING
AROUND 3000 FEET, AND THEN RISING TO 4000-5000 FEET. SOME
DOWNSLOPING WOULD OCCUR ACROSS OREGON, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD
BRING WINTER IMPACTS BACK TO NORCAL. THE WINTER STORM SEVERITY
INDEX IS SHOWING A HIGH PROBABILITY (60-80%) OF AT LEAST MODERATE
WINTER IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORCAL MOUNTAINS. THE MT SHASTA CITY
REGION AND I-5 IS A LITTLE IFFIER THOUGH WITH SNOW LEVELS HOVERING
3000-3500 FEET INITIALLY, THEN RISING. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...17/18Z TAFS
SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE
PLENTIFUL OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THEY'LL BECOME A BIT LESS
NUMEROUS OR SCATTERED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH COASTAL
AREAS BECOMING MORE FAVORED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 500 FEET OVERNIGHT, MAYBE EVEN LOCALLY LOWER AND
TO NEAR SEA LEVEL AT THE COAST. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS OBSCURING
ELEVATED TERRAIN.
MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2026
WESTERLY
WINDS EASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT HIGH WESTERLY SWELL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP SEAS IN ALL AREA WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SWELL EASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT
ANOTHER PASSING LOW BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, RAIN AND POSSIBLE STEEP SEAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY LOWER INTO FRIDAY.
THEN, A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM SHOWS A
HIGH PROBABILITY (>80% CHANCE) OF SOUTHERLY GALES AND ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS -
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE) SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ021>031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-082-
083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-084-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page