778
FXUS66 KMFR 182008
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1208 PM PST WED FEB 18 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...18/18Z TAFS
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE COAST BY
00Z EARLY THIS EVENING, CONTINUING AND SPREADING INLAND (AS SNOW FOR
MOST AREAS) OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND
2000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A PREDOMINANT MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON THE EAST SIDE.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PST WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2026
ADVISORY
STRENGTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY AND BRIEFLY EASE
LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN, A
STRONG STORM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES AND A POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE GUSTS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS - BEYOND 10 NM
FROM SHORE) SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN HIGH
TO VERY HIGH AND VERY STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 426 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026/
DISCUSSION...A COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, BRINGING LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SEVENMILE CREEK RAWS SITE NORTH OF BANDON
SHOWS FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INLAND SITES WEST OF THE CASCADES HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-20S AND MID TEENS TO THE EAST. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY MAKE EARLY MORNING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS FOR AREAS WITH
ACCUMULATED WET SNOW, URBAN PONDING, OR OTHER LINGERING MOISTURE.
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COULD FREEZE WATER OR WET SNOW, CAUSING
LOCALLY SLICK CONDITIONS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. PLEASE BE AWARE OF
THESE POSSIBLE CONDITIONS DURING ANY EARLY MORNING COMMUTES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
WARNING AREA BUT ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH FARTHER AND CURRY, COOS,
OR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WEST OF AND THE CASCADES AND OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY
TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR REMAINING
OVER THE AREA, SNOW LEVELS OF 500-1000 FEET MAY ALLOW FOR EARLY
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES. OTHER
THAN THAT, THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL.
AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING, THEN PRECIPITATION MOVES INLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS RISE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN AT 1000-1500
FEET. COASTAL RANGES, THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS, THE MOUNT SHASTA
REGION, AND THE CASCADES ALL LOOK TO GET ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR VALLEY
FLOORS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR FOOTHILLS OR OTHER ELEVATED
AREAS. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES, WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ALSO IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE FOR BASINS AND
VALLEYS. BLY MOUNTAIN AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA PASSES
ON THURSDAY MORNING. SEXTON AND SISKIYOU SUMMITS COULD SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH THE SYSTEM BRINGING PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS IT PASSES, THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION LOOKS TO GET MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
IMPACTING TRAVEL ALONG INTERSTATE 5 AND HIGHWAY 89. AREAS AROUND
MOUNT SHASTA CITY, SNOWMAN SUMMIT, AND DUNSMUIR ARE EXPECTED TO GET
6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT.
ACTIVITY TRAILS OFF INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BELOW AVERAGE LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH THE OREGON COAST. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MINIMIZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC AND DICTATING AREA WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS ARE COARSE AT THIS POINT, BUT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SUGGEST GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A PART OF THIS SYSTEM'S
IMPACTS. THESE TEND TO IMPACT THE SHASTA VALLEY, PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY, AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW MOVING UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION COULD BRING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 4000-5000 FEET WOULD KEEP
SNOW OUT OF WEST SIDE VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WOULD BE
SIGNIFICANT, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE MOUNT
SHASTA REGION. THE CASCADES, THE WARNER MOUNTAINS, AND THE BLY
MOUNTAIN/WINTER RIDGE AREA COULD ALSO GET IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL.
PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN DETAILS
FOR THIS SYSTEM. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023>031.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-082-
083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-084-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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