709
FXUS66 KMFR 190033
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
433 PM PST WED FEB 18 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...19/00Z TAFS
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING, CONTINUING AND SPREADING INLAND (AS SNOW FOR
MOST AREAS) OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND
2000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A PREDOMINANT MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON THE EAST
SIDE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 337 PM PST WED FEB 18 2026/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE
COAST AND WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRST, RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST WILL PICK UP IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE,
WITH MOST OF THE AREA COVERED BY A WINTER STORM WARNING OR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY /PDXWSWMFR/, HAS BEEN UPDATED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
FOCUS FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOWFALL FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS UPDATE ALSO INCLUDES AN
EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN KLAMATH,
LAKE, AND MODOC COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AN ACCUMULATION OF
UP TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEYS, EXCEPT AROUND 3 TO 8
INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY. MEANTIME,
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 4 TO 12 INCHES.
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000 FEET WILL FALL TO 800 TO 1500 FEET ON
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN NUDGE BACK UP TO 2000 FEET WITH LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
VALLEY LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL HINDER THE EXTENT OF COOLING, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY
COLD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COAST WITH READINGS NEAR 30 EXPECTED. MEANTIME, WEST SIDE LOWS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S, WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS
COMMON ON THE EAST SIDE. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING
STRONG AND GUSTY AT THE COAST, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY NEAR ASHLAND, OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET. THIS SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST WITH SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS LIKELY AT MID-WEEK.
MARINE...UPDATED 240 PM PST WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2026...A FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. STEEP TO
LOCALLY VERY STEEP SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS COMBINED SEAS
REACH 10-16 FT. EVEN AFTER WINDS EASE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT, STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (4AM PST) OF
FRIDAY. THEN, A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES AND A
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS -
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE) SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THIS IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND VERY STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023>031.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-082-
083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-084-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ370-376.
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