536
FXUS66 KMFR 191225
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
425 AM PST THU FEB 19 2026
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SWINGING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER
WEATHER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN PARTS OF
WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND IS VISIBLE ON ROADCAMS AT CAVE JUNCTION
AND HAYES HILL, PUTTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 1500 FEET OR LOWER. THIS
SUPPORTS CHANCES OF SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS THIS MORNING.
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALL
EXPECTED TO GET LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY, TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY SEE
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION, AS A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
BRING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO AREAS AROUND DUNSMUIR AND MCCLOUD
WHILE MOUNT SHASTA CITY LOOKS TO STAY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GET THEIR SNOWFALL LATER IN THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH REMAINING AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTH
LAKE COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION DECREASES TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW AVERAGE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY
BRING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO COASTAL CITIES AND NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY (ADVISORY AT 20 F) AND WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY (ADVISORY AT 15 F). AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE
CONDITIONS CAN FREEZE LINGERING WATER OR WET SNOW OR CAUSE HARM TO
PLANTS AND ANIMALS THAT ARE NOT ACCLIMATED. MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHERWISE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE AREA.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEAVING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC WILL DICTATE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE DETAILS OF THIS LOW HAVE BEEN COARSE, AND FURTHER CHANGES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE.
BROADLY, A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW LOOKS TO BRING INLAND
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL FRONT WOULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS TO
2500-3500 FEET. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND SETTLES DUE WEST OF
OREGON AT 140W, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT COULD DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
AND INTO THE SHASTA AND SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEYS. THIS SETUP WOULD
ALSO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO CURRY AND SISKIYOU COUNTY, NOTABLY
AROUND THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION THROUGH UPSLOPE FLOW.
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THIS LOW AT 140W AND SNOW LEVELS IN THE
3000-4000 FOOT RANGE, WHICH BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO AREA
TERRAIN. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW STRETCHING AN UPPER TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE,
FORMING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT WOULD BRING AMPLE RAINFALL TO
COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS SNOW LEVELS AT 6000 FEET, MINIMIZING WINTER
IMPACTS FOR EVERYWHERE EXPECT THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGELINES
DETAILS FOR THE IMPACTS OF THIS DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO COME
INTO FOCUS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FUTURE UPDATES FOR ANY
EXPECTATIONS OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. -TAD
AVIATION...19/12Z TAFS
A PASSING UPPER LOW IS BRINGING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON
EARLY THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS ARE SEEING MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
AS SHOWERS MOVE OVER. ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED WEST OF THE CASCADES
THIS MORNING, THEN MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BRING LOCALLY LOWER FLIGHT LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT GENERALLY FLIGHT LEVELS SHOULD BE AT VFR BY
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE OREGON COAST OR
THE CASCADES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PST THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2026
STEEP TO
LOCALLY VERY STEEP SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS COMBINED SEAS REACH
10-16 FT. EVEN AFTER WINDS EASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT, STEEP SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (4AM PST) OF FRIDAY. THEN, A
STRONG STORM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES AND A POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE GUSTS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS - BEYOND 10 NM
FROM SHORE) SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND VERY STEEP SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023-024-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ021>031.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORZ021-
022.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-082-
083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081-
084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-
376.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ370-376.
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