234
FXUS66 KMFR 192245
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
COLD WEATHER WILL CREATE MINOR IMPACTS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS
MT. SHASTA CITY COMES CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE. A STRONG
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OFF OUR COAST ON SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION. THERE IS A RISK OF FLOODING
ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RIVERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL,
MODERATE WEATHER RISKS CONTINUE FOR THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
THERE ARE LOTS OF SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AS COOLER
UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN WITH SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING. THE
SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND
THEY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOOSE SURFACE HEATING AND 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
COLD WEATHER IS THE MAIN HEADLINE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE COLD
LAST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THOSE WERE OCCURING DURING A WINTER STORM
WARNING. WITH THE RECENT SNOW PACK, PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOME VERY LIGHT WINDS, THERE IS MINOR COLD WEATHER RISK ACCORDING
TO OUR CRITERIA IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT WILL FRANKLY BE COLD
EVERYWHERE, BUT CALIFORNIA IS USUALLY A BIT WARMER IN THE VALLEYS.
WE'RE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 12
DEGREES IN MT. SHASTA CITY WITH THE OLD RECORD OF 15 SET BACK IN
2006. WE MIGHT BE A BIT TOO COLD IN THE FORECAST, BUT WE SHOULD
COME CLOSE TO THAT RECORD AT THE VERY LEAST.
THERE WAS ALSO SOME TALK OF FOG FORMING IN UMPQUA VALLEY TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDINGS HAS AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND THE AIR ISN'T THAT DRY ALOFT. IT'S UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CLEARING
WE'LL GET TONIGHT IN SOME SPOTS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION
ENSEMBLE FORECAST(HREF) IS PRETTY CONFIDENT WE'LL CLEAR OUT IN
SOME SPOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SOME FREEZING FOG
FORMS LATER TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AROUND LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH DIVES OUT THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A
SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AND STARTS TO SPIN UP OFF THE
OREGON COASTLINE LATE SATURDAY. THE LOW THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT
HEADS NORTHWARDS ALONG 130W AND DEEPENS FURTHER AROUND 135W AND
48N LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 970MB TO
980MB WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX(EFI) IS SHOWING WINDS VALUES AROUND 0.9 TO 0.95 IN
OUR OUTER WATERS WITH A SHIFT OF TALES OF 1. THIS HINTS AT A
PRETTY STRONG WIND EVENT COMING CLOSE TO COASTAL SHORELINE AND
PRODUCING HIGH WINDS. LOCAL MOS GUIDANCE BASED OFF THE GFS
FORECAST IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH IN THE COASTAL
HEADLANDS. WE DIDN'T ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS
TO BE REVISITED DURING FUTURE SHIFTS.
WE WERE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE SNOW FORECAST AS NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW A 50% CHANCE OF >10 INCHES OVER 5000 FEET IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE, WE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH AS MODELS SHOW STRONG 700 MB FLOW UP THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
THE 12Z ENSEMBLES ALSO APPEAR TO TREND A LITTLE WETTER WITH MORE
SNOW, SO THAT ADDED TO OUR CONFIDENCE.
BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OREGON COAST. INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT(IVT)
VECTORS/VALUES ARE SOUTHERLY AROUND 500 FOR AROUND 72 HOURS,
WHICH COULD BE CONSIDERED A MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER(AR) FOR THE
COAST. THE LATEST WPC QPF IS SHOWING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AS SNOW LEVELS HOVER AROUND 4000 FEET BEFORE INCREASING
TO 6000 FEET ON MONDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIQUID IN SNOW, WE
FELT THERE IS RISK OF AREAL FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND RAPID
RISES IN RIVERS. SOME OF THE LATEST HYDRO GRAPHS NEAR MYRTLE
POINT ALONG THE COQUILLE RIVER SHOW A 25% CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR
FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, THINGS START TO QUIET DOWN A BIT AS THE LOW
IMPACTING US FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WEAKENS AND ROTATES
FARTHER WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE WITH ALMOST
PERFECT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, ALTHOUGH THE NBM HAS POPS AROUND 40
PERCENT FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...19/18Z TAFS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STEADY LIGHT SNOW (WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS) FALLING ACROSS SE SISKIYOU, MODOC
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WEST SIDE VALLEYS BEHIND
THIS LOW AND THESE WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
BREAKING TO VFR IN ALL BUT THE UMPQUA BASIN (ROSEBURG) DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ROSEBURG COULD BREAK TO VFR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE LOW CLOUDS (IFR/MVFR) RETURN OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SW
OREGON COAST (NORTH BEND/BROOKINGS). THESE SHOULD DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG COULD IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AT MEDFORD/KLAMATH FALLS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2026
NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT, BUT STEEP TO
OCCASIONALLY VERY STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST (10-15 FT THIS EVENING,
EASING BELOW 10 FEET FRIDAY MORNING). A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
WINDS AND LOWER SEAS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. THEN, A STRONG
STORM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA, BRINGING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES/VERY
STEEP SEAS OVER THE INNER WATERS (INSIDE 10 NM) AND STORM WINDS/
DANGEROUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS (BEYOND 10NM FROM SHORE) LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. STEEP TO VERY STEEP,
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE WATERS EVEN BEYOND
THAT TIME FRAME (INTO AT LEAST MONDAY). APPROPRIATE HAZARD HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
HYDROLOGY
A MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE
SHOWING WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOCALLY 8 INCHES IN THE FAVORED COAST RANGES OF CURRY COUNTY.
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND
ALSO OTHER FAVORED AREAS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO RISE RAPIDLY DURING THIS
EVENT WITH NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND
FLASHIER CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL
RUNNING FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN. WE HAVE ISSUED A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFMFR) TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
WHILE THE EXACT SCENARIO FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTS AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS SITUATION WORSENS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR CAZ080>082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ080-082-083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ350-356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-
376.
STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ370-376.
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