346
FXUS66 KMFR 210622
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1022 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...21/06Z TAFS
AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, EXPECT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR
MAY DEVELOP FOR SOME AREAS JUST INLAND, MAINLY INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. WE DON'T THINK FOG WILL REFORM TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF
THE CASCADES SINCE THERE SHOULD BE A CEILING IN THE 4000-6000 FT
RANGE AND LIGHT TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES WEST, THERE COULD BE TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
AS WELL. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION PRESENT
AROUND 1500-2000 FT AGL WILL CAUSE A RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, FROM
AROUND CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF VERY
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, THE SHASTA
VALLEY, SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY AND OVER TO THE EAST SIDE DURING THE
WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2026/
DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT AND LINGER THERE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPAWN SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE COAST
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY, TONIGHT, AS THE FIRST OFFSHORE FRONT APPROACHES, SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND WILL START OUT AROUND 2000-2500
FEET. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND TO AROUND THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BE QUITE LIGHT, BUT WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS, WE WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW AROUND THE MT SHASTA REGION ON I-5
OR EVEN THE PASSES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN AT TIMES TONIGHT AT THE
LOWER PASSES WEST OF THE CASCADES (SEXTON/CANYON MT./HAYES
HILL/CAMAS). DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW, WE DON'T
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH ANYWHERE TO WARRANT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES.
MEANWHILE, THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME SSE
WIND SURFACING IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER IN THESE AREAS AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING ALONG THE COAST. SINCE THE FLOW IS MORE SSE, WE
EXPECT MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT COUPLE OF FRONTS TO
BE SOUTH OF BANDON, AND ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD AT
THE COASTAL HEADLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF 50-65 MPH WILL BE COMMON,
POSSIBLY PEAKING AT 75 MPH DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS AT
THE HEADLANDS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS
ALOFT INLAND (WHILE STILL STRONG) ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER. WE
THINK WE'LL SEE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS (40-55 MPH) IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING (ROGUE VALLEY), OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
(SHASTA VALLEY). WE DON'T THINK STRONGER WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE
EAST SIDE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY PM/EVENING AT THE EARLIEST, SO WE
HELD OFF ON WIND HEADLINES OVER THERE FOR NOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD (SAT-SUN) AS WELL WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE ABOVE
4000 FEET, BUT ABOVE 3000 FEET IN MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TO
ABOVE 4000 FEET. AGAIN, THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE WINTER
IMPACTS WITH A SECOND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVING AT THE COAST TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIRECTED INTO NORCAL. WE UPGRADED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ABOVE 4500 FEET IN
ZONES 80, 82 AND 83 (SINCE THAT'S WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY
SNOW IS EXPECTED) FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME WET
SNOW COULD FALL/BRIEFLY ACCUMULATE AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MORE THAN AN
INCH OR TWO. WE LOPPED OFF THE END OF THE WATCH (WHICH ORIGINALLY
WENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) BECAUSE IT APPEARS THE FLOW WILL
REORIENT SUNDAY NIGHT, AND BY THEN, SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE RISEN
ABOVE 6000 FEET AND EITHER PRECIPITATION WILL END FOR A WHILE OR
SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THE STEADIEST, HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY AT
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A BREAK
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAVIER
PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BUT, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING
BACK AND FORTH WITH JUST HOW FAR INLAND THE HEAVIER BAND GETS.
RECENT 12Z MODELS HAVE DECREASED QPF QUITE A BIT FOR AREAS INLAND
COMPARED TO JUST 24 HOURS AGO, BUT AMOUNTS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL
ALONG THE COAST. GENERALLY, AMOUNTS FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION
(THROUGH TUESDAY) RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST (UP TO 8
INCHES CURRY COAST RANGES) WITH 1-3 INCHES INLAND AND INTO
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MT. SHASTA REGION, WITH NOW LESSER
AMOUNTS IN THE DOWNSLOPE VALLEYS LIKE THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEY
WITH 0.50-1.00 INCH. EAST SIDE AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY'S FRONT TO SEE MUCH. WE ARE FORECASTING 0.10
(DESERTS EAST OF THE WARNERS) TO 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. WINTER RIM AND OTHER MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. FOR INFORMATION ON FLOOD POTENTIAL, PLEASE SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A
DRIER, MILDER PATTERN EVOLVING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2026...THE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS (6-7 FT) WILL END THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP MULTIPLE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURES ALONG 130W, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FIRST
SURFACE LOW IMPACTS AREA WATERS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAMPING UP TO GALES OVERNIGHT. AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY, GALES ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE UP.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP AND DANGEROUS SEAS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS EASE JUST BELOW GALES LATE
SUNDAY, BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CALMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY...A WEAK TO MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL LIKELY BRING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EARLY INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS
WIDESPREAD 72HR TOTALS AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOCALLY 8 INCHES IN THE FAVORED COAST RANGES OF CURRY COUNTY.
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND
ALSO OTHER FAVORED AREAS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. FOR FURTHER
PERSPECTIVE, THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 1.50" OF RAINFALL OVER
A 24 HOUR PERIOD IS ROUGHLY 50%-80% FOR ANY 24HR TIME PERIOD
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. IN FACT, THERE ARE
A COUPLE TIME PERIODS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHERE THE
PROBABILITY FOR 1.0"/6HRS IS 20%-40%. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO SEE RAPID RISES DURING THIS
EVENT WITH NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS LIKELY
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS
AND FLASHIER CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL
RUNNING FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN. WE HAVE ISSUED A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFMFR) TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECASTS AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS
SITUATION WORSENS OR BECOMES MORE LIKELY FOR FLOODING.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ026-030-031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
CAZ080-082-083.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10
AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-
376.
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