653
FXUS66 KMFR 211121
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
321 AM PST SAT FEB 21 2026
DISCUSSION
OVERALL, THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO LARGE
SCALE CHANGES WERE MADE SINCE THE EVENING UPDATE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD, THOUGH MOSTLY LIGHT, RETURNS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW SOME OF THESE RETURNS ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH A FEW
CLICKS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEING RECORDED ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SOME OF
THE AREA WEBCAMS IN THE CASCADES ARE SHOWING SNOW FLURRIES AND
EVEN SOME SNOW COVERED ROADS UP NEAR DIAMOND/CRATER LAKE AREA.
SHOWERS IN THIS AREA SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG 130 W, JUST BRUSHING THE COAST THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE, WITH GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
LOCATIONS (COAST/SHASTA VALLEY) SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS
WILL GET STRONGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW
QUICKLY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS WIND HEADLINES
ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND DETAILS CAN BE
FOUND AT NPWMFR. ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS THAT TAPER OFF
LATER THIS MORNING, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. IN FACT, MOST INLAND AREAS (EAST OF THE COAST RANGE) WON'T
REALLY SEE ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY
AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING, AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW/VALLEY RAIN TO THE MT SHASTA CITY REGION AND
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 4500 FT, AND DETAILS CAN BE
FOUND AT WSWMFR. WE'LL BE MONITORING THE LATEST NWRFC/CNRFC
FORECASTS FOR POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE
THE VARIOUS DISCUSSIONS BELOW FOR FURTHER/ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AVIATION...21/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WITH SOME LOWER END VFR
CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST. A STRENGTHENING FRONT OFFSHORE IS BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION ALONG WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF
THE WARNERS. GUSTY WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING THIS MORNING, SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS ALONG THE
COAST MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS
A FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION PRESENT AROUND 1500-
2000 FT AGL WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. AS LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON, THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SURFACE IN MOST AREAS, LOWERING THE RISK FOR LLWS EXCEPT
FOR THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, THE SHASTA VALLEY, SOUTHERN ROGUE
VALLEY AND OVER TO THE EAST SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST TODAY, FROM AROUND CAPE
BLANCO SOUTHWARD, WITH A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2026
A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP MULTIPLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURES
ALONG 130W, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION, BRINGING GALES AND VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TO MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE AND GALES INCREASE TO STORM
FORCE ACROSS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER, BECOMING
VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS, PEAKING AROUND 22 TO 28 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS AND AROUND 15 TO 20 FT FOR THE INNER WATERS. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR TREACHEROUS BAR CROSSINGS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS EASE JUST
BELOW GALES LATE SUNDAY, BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY STEEP
AND HAZARDOUS WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CALMER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
A WEAK TO MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL LIKELY BRING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EARLY INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS
WIDESPREAD 72 HR TOTALS AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOCALLY 8 INCHES IN THE FAVORED COAST RANGES OF CURRY COUNTY.
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND
ALSO OTHER FAVORED AREAS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. FOR FURTHER
PERSPECTIVE, THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 1.50" OF RAINFALL OVER A
24 HOUR PERIOD IS ROUGHLY 50%-80% FOR ANY 24HR TIME PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. IN FACT, THERE ARE A COUPLE
TIME PERIODS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHERE THE PROBABILITY
FOR 1.0"/6HRS IS 20%-40%. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO SEE RAPID RISES DURING THIS
EVENT WITH NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS LIKELY
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS
AND FLASHIER CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL
RUNNING FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN. WE HAVE ISSUED A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFMFR) TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECASTS AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS
SITUATION WORSENS OR BECOMES MORE LIKELY FOR FLOODING.
BEACH HAZARDS
UPDATED 200 AM PST SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 21,
2026...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 23 FT
ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG THE BEACHES AND SHORELINES OF CURRY
COUNTY WITH SOUTH FACING BEACHES BEING THE MOST IMPACTED. THESE
LARGE BREAKING WAVES COULD INUNDATE BEACHES AND LOW LYING
SHORELINES. BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE AND EXPOSED INFRASTRUCTURE MAY
BE DAMAGED. IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO VISIT AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND,
STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE AND OFF OF JETTIES. AREA BEACHES WILL
BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1051 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2026/
UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING TO ADD TO THE LIST
OF WIND HAZARDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE COUNTY
(NORTH AND EAST OF LAKEVIEW) AND EXTENDING INTO FAR EASTERN
KLAMATH COUNTY FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROGUE
VALLEY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ABOVE 4500 FEET FROM LATE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.
LASTLY, PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS RELATED
TO HEAVY RAIN, FOCUSED AT THE COAST AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF
THE WEST SIDE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2026/
DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT AND LINGER THERE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPAWN SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE COAST
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY, TONIGHT, AS THE FIRST OFFSHORE FRONT APPROACHES, SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND WILL START OUT AROUND 2000-2500
FEET. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND TO AROUND THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BE QUITE LIGHT, BUT WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS, WE WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW AROUND THE MT SHASTA REGION ON I-5
OR EVEN THE PASSES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN AT TIMES TONIGHT AT THE
LOWER PASSES WEST OF THE CASCADES (SEXTON/CANYON MT./HAYES
HILL/CAMAS). DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW, WE DON'T
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH ANYWHERE TO WARRANT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES.
MEANWHILE, THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME SSE
WIND SURFACING IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER IN THESE AREAS AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING ALONG THE COAST. SINCE THE FLOW IS MORE SSE, WE
EXPECT MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT COUPLE OF FRONTS TO
BE SOUTH OF BANDON, AND ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD AT
THE COASTAL HEADLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF 50-65 MPH WILL BE COMMON,
POSSIBLY PEAKING AT 75 MPH DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS AT
THE HEADLANDS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS
ALOFT INLAND (WHILE STILL STRONG) ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER. WE
THINK WE'LL SEE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS (40-55 MPH) IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING (ROGUE VALLEY), OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
(SHASTA VALLEY). WE DON'T THINK STRONGER WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE
EAST SIDE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY PM/EVENING AT THE EARLIEST, SO WE
HELD OFF ON WIND HEADLINES OVER THERE FOR NOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD (SAT-SUN) AS WELL WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE ABOVE
4000 FEET, BUT ABOVE 3000 FEET IN MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TO
ABOVE 4000 FEET. AGAIN, THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE WINTER
IMPACTS WITH A SECOND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVING AT THE COAST TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIRECTED INTO NORCAL. WE UPGRADED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ABOVE 4500 FEET IN
ZONES 80, 82 AND 83 (SINCE THAT'S WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY
SNOW IS EXPECTED) FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME WET
SNOW COULD FALL/BRIEFLY ACCUMULATE AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MORE THAN AN
INCH OR TWO. WE LOPPED OFF THE END OF THE WATCH (WHICH ORIGINALLY
WENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) BECAUSE IT APPEARS THE FLOW WILL
REORIENT SUNDAY NIGHT, AND BY THEN, SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE RISEN
ABOVE 6000 FEET AND EITHER PRECIPITATION WILL END FOR A WHILE OR
SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THE STEADIEST, HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY AT
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A BREAK
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAVIER
PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BUT, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING
BACK AND FORTH WITH JUST HOW FAR INLAND THE HEAVIER BAND GETS.
RECENT 12Z MODELS HAVE DECREASED QPF QUITE A BIT FOR AREAS INLAND
COMPARED TO JUST 24 HOURS AGO, BUT AMOUNTS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL
ALONG THE COAST. GENERALLY, AMOUNTS FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION
(THROUGH TUESDAY) RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST (UP TO 8
INCHES CURRY COAST RANGES) WITH 1-3 INCHES INLAND AND INTO
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MT. SHASTA REGION, WITH NOW LESSER
AMOUNTS IN THE DOWNSLOPE VALLEYS LIKE THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEY
WITH 0.50-1.00 INCH. EAST SIDE AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY'S FRONT TO SEE MUCH. WE ARE FORECASTING 0.10
(DESERTS EAST OF THE WARNERS) TO 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. WINTER RIM AND OTHER MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. FOR INFORMATION ON FLOOD POTENTIAL, PLEASE SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A
DRIER, MILDER PATTERN EVOLVING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ026-030-031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR CAZ080-082-083.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ370-376.
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