840
FXUS66 KMFR 220541
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
941 PM PST SAT FEB 21 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...22/06Z TAFS
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT WITH STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. THESE LONG-DURATION WINDS ARE CREATING AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR
WITH RAIN INTENSITY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE OBSCURATION OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS OF MVFR WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO AREAS WEST
OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY MORNING. EAST OF THE CASCADES, VFR AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST WITH AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION INLAND TO THE CASCADES AND ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE CASCADES. SUNDAY EVENING, EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH VFR AND LOCAL MVFR EAST OF
THE CASCADES.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 256 PM PST SAT FEB 21 2026/
DISCUSSION...A FEW CHANGES CREPT UP ON US TODAY. FIRST, WINDS IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY AND FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES HAVE COME
IN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. WINDS HERE AT THE MEDFORD AIRPORT HAVE
REACHED 45 MPH, WITH REPORTS OF OVER 50 MPH FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS
HAVE GUSTED TO NEARLY 75 MPH OVER THE SISKIYOUS, AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING, A CLOUD OF BLOWING SNOW WAS SEEN DRIFTING OFF OF MT.
MCLOUGHLIN, SHOWING JUST HOW STRONG WINDS ARE JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. WITH THESE WINDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT, HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY TO INCLUDE MEDFORD PROPER, AS WELL AS TO INCLUDE
NEARLY ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF DOUGLAS, JOSEPHINE, AND
EASTERN COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES.
ALSO, WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME, AND WITH HIGHER SNOW
LEVELS PUSHING INTO THE REGION, PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT MUCH LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND NOW THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH
WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA. AS A RESULT, HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO AN ADVISORY INSTEAD. THE LESSER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE ALSO DECREASED OUR HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS, WITH ALL RIVERS NOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE, ALTHOUGH SOME, SUCH AS
DEER CREEK NEAR ROSEBURG, STILL COMING CLOSE. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THOSE POTENTIAL TROUBLE SPOTS, BUT THE CHANCES OF HIGH WATER
ARE MUCH DECREASED, AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENT.
THE LARGE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SWINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
AREA WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, SPINNING WELL TO OUR WEST, BUT SENDING
ADDITIONAL WAVES/FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF BREEZY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FORM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN, AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
RETREATS TOWARDS HAWAII, A CLASSIC PINEAPPLE EXPRESS SETS UP, WITH
A MOISTURE PLUME FROM NEAR HAWAII RIDING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DIRECTLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE CURRENT STORM LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A
PRECIPITATION MAKER AND MORE OF A WIND PRODUCER, THE EVENT ON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE OPPOSITE, WITH LESS WIND BUT POTENTIALLY MUCH
MORE RAIN. AND WITH THIS MOISTURE COMING FROM A TROPICAL SOURCE,
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER (7000-8000 FT), SO SNOW WILL NOT
BE A CONCERN, BUT RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL BE. WE WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR QUICK RISES AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA, WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK (DESPITE THE NBM
AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ONGOING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK). AREA VALLEYS, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY SEE
STRONG INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2026...THE MAIN
UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON WERE TO EXTEND THE STORM WARNING ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING, AND EXTEND THE HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING THAT FOLLOWS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP MULTIPLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURES
ALONG 130W, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WATERS
INTO SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE AND STORM FORCE WINDS
INCREASE TO PEAK STRENGTH WITH SOUTH GUSTS OF UP TO 60 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD FURTHER, WITH VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SEAS, PEAKING AROUND 22
TO 28 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND AROUND 18 TO 25 FT FOR THE
INNER WATERS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR TREACHEROUS BAR CROSSINGS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS EASE TO GALES ON SUNDAY MORNING, THEN JUST BELOW
GALES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY STEEP
AND HAZARDOUS INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALES ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY...A MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY 8 INCHES IN THE FAVORED COAST
RANGES OF CURRY COUNTY. AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND ALSO OTHER FAVORED AREAS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO RISE RAPIDLY DURING THIS
EVENT WITH NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND
FLASHIER CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL
RUNNING FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN.
THE WARM RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS
WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET, WILL CAUSE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN TO COMBINE
WITH SNOWMELT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER RISES.
WHILE THE EXACT SCENARIO FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTS AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS SITUATION WORSENS.
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 200 PM PST SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 21,
2026...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LARGE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 23 TO 27 FT ARE
EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG THE BEACHES AND SHORELINES OF CURRY COUNTY
WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES BEING THE MOST IMPACTED.
THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES COULD INUNDATE BEACHES AND LOW LYING
SHORELINES. BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE AND EXPOSED INFRASTRUCTURE MAY
BE DAMAGED. IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO VISIT AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND,
STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE AND OFF OF JETTIES. AREA BEACHES WILL
BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ023>026-030-031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ080-082-
083.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ356.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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