983
FXUS66 KMFR 222220
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
220 PM PST SUN FEB 22 2026
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND, WHICH IS THE PARENT
LOW THAT BROUGHT US THE WINDS AND RAIN OF YESTERDAY AND TODAY. TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THAT LOW, SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE LOW
CIRCULATION OUT AROUND 40N 150W. THESE TWO LOWS HAVE SET UP A
CORRIDOR OF SWIFT SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TROPICS NEAR HAWAII
AND THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL BE THE CONVEYOR
BELT, OR PINEAPPLE EXPRESS, THAT TRANSPORTS DEEP, WARM MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
UNTIL THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF
THAT BROAD NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW, WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS AND SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES, THROUGH
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO
CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW.
THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STEADIER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING AT THE COAST A LITTLE
PAST MIDDAY, SPREADING EAST TO THE CASCADES BY EVENING, THEN TO
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE IN THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RAINFALL FORECASTS SHOW WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE
FAVORED COAST RANGES OF CURRY COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SLOPES OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AN INCH
ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
THE INCOMING WARM AIR WILL PRESENT ANOTHER CONCERN, AND THAT IS
SNOWMELT. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE 7000
OR EVEN 8000 FEET, WARM RAIN WILL FALL ON RECENT SNOWS, ADDING TO
THE RUNOFF IN ALL AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS. THESE
DRAINAGES ARE LIKELY TO RISE RAPIDLY DURING THIS EVENT WITH
NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND FLASHIER
CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING
FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL IS A
BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN, AND ALONG THE
MORE FLASHIER STREAMS SUCH AS DEER CREEK IN ROSEBURG AND LITTLE
BUTTE CREEK IN EAGLE POINT.
THE MAIN BELT OF MOISTURE PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY,
WITH RAIN DIMINISHING AT THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
REST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS, BUT AMOUNTS BY THIS TIME WILL
BE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 3000 TO 4000 FT
WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF, SO SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
ELEVATION, BUT NO WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY (DESPITE THE NBM AND THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK). AREA VALLEYS, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY SEE STRONG INVERSIONS
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. UPDATES WILL FOLLOW
AS NEEDED.
AVIATION...22/18Z TAFS
THE RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHING INLAND TO AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS MORNING
BROUGHT A WIND SHIFT TO WEST AT MEDFORD IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. EVEN
SO, WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL FAIRLY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH, SO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) REMAINS A CONCERN, NOT ONLY AT MEDFORD, BUT ALSO
AT OTHER TERMINALS TODAY. WITH SOME VERTICAL MIXING EXPECTED TODAY
AND THE FRONTAL BAND MORE/LESS STALLING/WEAKENING OVERHEAD, WE
EXPECT THE SOUTH WINDS TO RESURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS (POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 35 KT) THAT COULD IMPACT BOTH MFR AND LMT. AS SUCH, WE ISSUED
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS FOR BOTH TERMINALS LASTING THROUGH 01-02Z.
WINDS HAVE EASED BACK AT NORTH BEND AND ROSEBURG FOR THE TIME BEING
AND WE EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST IN THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY VFR, BUT COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO MVFR DURING
HEAVIER RAIN. LLWS WILL BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
AND AT ROSEBURG THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT WAGS
BACK OFFSHORE. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK ONSHORE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2026
A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE MARINE WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG WITH
GUSTY, PRIMARILY SOUTH WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
WILL BE HEAVY, RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. OVERALL,
THE SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE ARAGO. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT LINE DEVELOPING ON MONDAY (WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WATERS). COMBINED SEAS OF 12-16
FEET AT 11 SECONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WILL EVER SO SLIGHTLY
LOWER, BUT NOT BY MUCH THROUGH MONDAY (9-13 FEET).
THEN, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, SWINGING
THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS, AGAIN MAINLY FROM
CAPE ARAGO SOUTHWARD. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THIS PERIOD (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO). RATHER THAN
MAKE THE FORECAST MORE COMPLICATED, WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL
UPTICK IN WIND/SEAS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
A WARM SOURCED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, COMMONLY REFERRED
TO AS A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS, WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT
RAINFALL FORECASTS SHOW WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG
THE COAST WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORED COAST RANGES
OF CURRY COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE
INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES
AND MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SLOPES OF SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND BETWEEN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
COMPOUNDING THE HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS, THE WARM RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOWMELT
AND THEREFORE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED RUNOFF IN AREA WATERSHEDS.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO RISE RAPIDLY DURING THIS
EVENT WITH NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND
FLASHIER CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL
RUNNING FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN, AND ALONG THE
MORE FLASHIER STREAMS SUCH AS DEER CREEK IN ROSEBURG AND LITTLE
BUTTE CREEK IN EAGLE POINT.
WHILE THE EXACT SCENARIO FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTS AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS SITUATION WORSENS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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