588
FXUS66 KMFR 230701
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1101 PM PST SUN FEB 22 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...23/06Z TAFS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)WILL PERSIST
FROM THE COAST TO THE COAST RANGE, AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH AROUND 18Z MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 30 TO 45 KT. ALSO, RAIN AND AREAS OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE
WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE AT THE COAST THROUGH 18Z, THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANTIME, IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR TO
THE EAST SIDE.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE EARLY MONDAY EVENING, AFTER 00Z, WITH A
PREDOMINANT MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING A STRONG FRONT.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2026
A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, RESULTING IN
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. OVERALL, THE SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE ARAGO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHARP WIND SHIFT LINE DEVELOPING ON MONDAY
(WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WATERS WHILE THE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
GENERALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO). COMBINED SEAS OF 12-16 FEET AT 10
SECONDS OVERNIGHT, WILL EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT NOT BY MUCH
DURING MONDAY (9-13 FEET).
THEN, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, SWINGING
THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS,
WITH SOUTH GALES SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH EARLY
TUESDAY, BUT VERY STEEP SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING TUESDAY
WITH STEEP SEAS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS
ARE THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 220 PM PST SUN FEB 22 2026/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND, WHICH IS THE PARENT
LOW THAT BROUGHT US THE WINDS AND RAIN OF YESTERDAY AND TODAY. TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THAT LOW, SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE LOW
CIRCULATION OUT AROUND 40N 150W. THESE TWO LOWS HAVE SET UP A
CORRIDOR OF SWIFT SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TROPICS NEAR HAWAII
AND THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL BE THE CONVEYOR
BELT, OR PINEAPPLE EXPRESS, THAT TRANSPORTS DEEP, WARM MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
UNTIL THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF
THAT BROAD NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW, WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS AND SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES, THROUGH
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO
CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW.
THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STEADIER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING AT THE COAST A LITTLE
PAST MIDDAY, SPREADING EAST TO THE CASCADES BY EVENING, THEN TO
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE IN THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RAINFALL FORECASTS SHOW WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE
FAVORED COAST RANGES OF CURRY COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SLOPES OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AN INCH
ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
THE INCOMING WARM AIR WILL PRESENT ANOTHER CONCERN, AND THAT IS
SNOWMELT. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE 7000
OR EVEN 8000 FEET, WARM RAIN WILL FALL ON RECENT SNOWS, ADDING TO
THE RUNOFF IN ALL AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS. THESE
DRAINAGES ARE LIKELY TO RISE RAPIDLY DURING THIS EVENT WITH
NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND FLASHIER
CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING
FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL IS A
BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN, AND ALONG THE
MORE FLASHIER STREAMS SUCH AS DEER CREEK IN ROSEBURG AND LITTLE
BUTTE CREEK IN EAGLE POINT.
THE MAIN BELT OF MOISTURE PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY,
WITH RAIN DIMINISHING AT THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
REST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS, BUT AMOUNTS BY THIS TIME WILL
BE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 3000 TO 4000 FT
WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF, SO SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
ELEVATION, BUT NO WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY (DESPITE THE NBM AND THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK). AREA VALLEYS, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY SEE STRONG INVERSIONS
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. UPDATES WILL FOLLOW
AS NEEDED.
HYDROLOGY...A WARM SOURCED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, COMMONLY REFERRED
TO AS A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS, WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT
RAINFALL FORECASTS SHOW WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG
THE COAST WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORED COAST RANGES
OF CURRY COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE
INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES
AND MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SLOPES OF SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND BETWEEN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
COMPOUNDING THE HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS, THE WARM RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOWMELT
AND THEREFORE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED RUNOFF IN AREA WATERSHEDS.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO RISE RAPIDLY DURING THIS
EVENT WITH NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND
FLASHIER CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL
RUNNING FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN, AND ALONG THE
MORE FLASHIER STREAMS SUCH AS DEER CREEK IN ROSEBURG AND LITTLE
BUTTE CREEK IN EAGLE POINT.
WHILE THE EXACT SCENARIO FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTS AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS SITUATION WORSENS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-
376.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-
376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page