084
FXUS66 KMFR 231225
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
425 AM PST MON FEB 23 2026
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS REMAIN ONGOING THIS MORNING AND SPREAD OUT MOSTLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT OFF THE
COAST INTO CENTRAL OREGON THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
MAINLY NEAR COOS BAY TODAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 INCHES AROUND
THAT AREA AND LOWER TOTALS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT PART OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND WE'LL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVER BOTH EVENTS, WE'RE
LOOKING AT 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER OTHER LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
RIGHT NOW, RAPID RISES IN RIVERS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND SOME PONDING OVER SOME ROADWAYS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. RIVER FLOODING STILL
LOOKS UNLIKELY BASED ON THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE OBSERVED RIVER STAGES ARE HIGHER THAN THE FORECASTS, SO WE
COULD COME CLOSE NEAR MYRTLE POINT, ESPECIALLY IF THE QPF IS
HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AS THIS WARM PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING, SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 9000 FEET LATER TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN RAIN OVER MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE MELTING
AND LIQUID MOVING INTO THE TRIBUTARIES. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN, THERE HAS TO BE SOME RISK OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
JOSEPHINE COUNTY WITH 24 HOUR RAINFALL AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES,
WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE FOR THAT AREA.
THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX(EFI) WAS SHOWING A PRETTY LARGE AREA OF
0.8 WITH SOME POCKETS OF 0.9 ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
SO THIS IS DEFINITELY A WET EVENT FOR LATE FEBRUARY FROM 0Z
TUESDAY TO 0Z WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, WE'LL STAY WITH THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NOW, ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL HYDRO PRODUCTS COULD COME UP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A COLD FRONT AND IT
BEGINS IT'S TRACK EASTWARDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BRIEFLY AND THE POP FORECAST DROPS NOTABLY
DOWN TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND DOWN TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST APPEARS ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF FEBRUARY AS POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THINGS ARRIVE. NOTHING IS REALLY POPPING OUT ON
THE EFI, ALTHOUGH THINGS SEEM UNUSUALLY WARM FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
-SMITH
AVIATION...23/12Z TAFS
CEILINGS VARY THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF
LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER SOME OF THE INLAND
VALLEYS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE VISIBILITIES REALLY DROP DURING SOME
OF THIS HEAVY RAIN, PERHAPS DOWN TO 1 MILE LATER THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
EAST OF THE CASCADES, VFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
AND PERHAPS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LOWER TO 3000 FEET LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2026
A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, RESULTING IN
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. OVERALL, THE SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE ARAGO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHARP WIND SHIFT LINE DEVELOPING ON MONDAY
(WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WATERS WHILE THE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
GENERALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO). COMBINED SEAS OF 12-16 FEET AT 10
SECONDS OVERNIGHT, WILL EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT NOT BY MUCH
DURING MONDAY (9-13 FEET).
THEN, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, SWINGING
THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS,
WITH SOUTH GALES SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH EARLY
TUESDAY, BUT VERY STEEP SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING TUESDAY
WITH STEEP SEAS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS
ARE THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
/ISSUED 220 PM PST SUN FEB 23 2026/A WARM SOURCED
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS,
WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT RAINFALL FORECASTS SHOW
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY
UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORED COAST RANGES OF CURRY COUNTY. UP TO
AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH SLOPES OF SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
AND AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
COMPOUNDING THE HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS, THE WARM RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOWMELT
AND THEREFORE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED RUNOFF IN AREA WATERSHEDS.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO RISE RAPIDLY DURING THIS
EVENT WITH NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND
FLASHIER CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL
RUNNING FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN, AND ALONG THE
MORE FLASHIER STREAMS SUCH AS DEER CREEK IN ROSEBURG AND LITTLE
BUTTE CREEK IN EAGLE POINT.
WHILE THE EXACT SCENARIO FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTS AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS SITUATION WORSENS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-
376.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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